This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.
It's been a tough year for Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), shares of which are down by about 30% year to date and more than 40% below the peak they reached in December. Yet on paper, the stock still doesn't look like a screaming buy. It remains expensive on a price-to-sales basis, especially compared to other electric car stocks like Lucid Group and Rivian. Plus, analysts' expectations for its growth this year are uninspiring.
But there's one factor that could catch the market by surprise this year, adding huge growth to its sales in 2026 and beyond. Could buying Tesla stock after its recent slump help your portfolio reach the $1 million mark? The answer is yes, but there's a catch.
The vehicle that could create huge sales growth for Tesla
A decade ago, Tesla's annual sales were under $5 billion. Today, they're above $95 billion. Some of that massive growth came from rising demand for its top-end models, the Model S and Model X. In 2015, the Model S had been on sale for several years, but deliveries of the Model X only began in September of that year. Most of the revenue growth for Tesla over the past decade, however, came from its two mass-market models: the Model Y and Model 3. Both of these vehicles debuted with sticker prices under $50,000 -- a level that puts them within reach of tens of millions of potential buyers.
This year, analysts are, on average, projecting that Tesla's sales will grow by just 8.6%. This is in part due to its stagnant lineup of vehicles. The Model 3 and Model Y were introduced in 2016 and 2019, respectively. The Cybertruck, meanwhile, began production in 2023, but it can cost more than $100,000 depending on options. Tesla hasn't released a new affordable vehicle in nearly a half-decade.
If Tesla debuts another affordable model, its sales growth could experience a strong resurgence -- and according to a recent report, this catalyst could arrive as soon as 2026, with a base price that might shock investors.
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Will Tesla actually unveil a $25,000 EV?
Elon Musk has always been clear about his growth strategy for Tesla. His "master plan" for the company was to first introduce luxury electric vehicles, then use the profits from those sales to develop and launch more affordable EVs. The company would then use the proceeds from these models to develop even more affordable vehicles.
Way back in 2018, Musk told a reporter that "a $25,000 car, that's something we can do." According to recent revelations, that $25,000 Tesla could finally be just around the corner, but there's a catch: It won't be able to be piloted by a human driver. Instead, it will be the long-awaited Cybercab: a two-door, two-seat, fully autonomous vehicle.
Tesla is planning to pilot its robotaxi service in Texas this summer, though it's not clear which models it will use to test the service and its self-driving technology. What we do know is that Musk is optimistic about the potential for its self-driving vehicles.
"I predict there will be millions of Teslas operating autonomously -- fully autonomously -- in the second half of next year," he said during this week's investor conference call. On that call, Lars Moravy, Tesla's vice president of vehicle engineering, affirmed that the Cybercab was "still on schedule for production next year."
The launch of a $25,000 autonomous vehicle would be a huge inflection point for Tesla's recently stagnating growth. And according to many estimates, a robotaxi service could add hundreds of billions of dollars to the company's valuation. The problem is that Tesla's already priced at a premium, trading at 9.4 times sales even after the correction.
For Tesla to become a millionaire-maker stock for new investors today, those investors will need to be very patient. It will likely take years, if not a decade, for Tesla to ramp up production of Cybercabs and bring its robotaxi service to scale. In the meantime, the company's lofty current valuation will likely make near-term share price gains harder to come by. So yes, Tesla could still help your portfolio pass the $1 million mark. But more than ever, its shares should only be purchased by those who are willing and able to hold on for the long term.
This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.
