Is it time to buy this beaten down lithium share?

This diversified miner's share price has been hit on multiple fronts. What does it mean for investors?

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO) shares have been battered over the past year amid stagnant lithium prices and a barrage of bad press.

IGO shares have dropped about 28% so far this year, as the company's CFO announced she's leaving.

In fact, IGO has seen its value sink by more than 50% over the past year.

IGO, with a market cap of about $2.6 billion, mines nickel, copper, and cobalt in Western Australia.

It's also a joint venture partner with Tianqi Lithium Corporation in the Greenbushes lithium mine in WA.

The JV, known as Tianqi Lithium Energy Australia Pty Ltd, also owns the Kwinana Lithium Hydroxide Refinery, located outside Perth.

Two miners standing together.

Image source: Getty Images

Downgrades

Earlier this year, IGO announced that it had downgraded its Greenbushes production estimates from 1.4 to 1.5 million tonnes to 1.3 to 1.4 million tonnes.

The company attributed its revised estimates to weakness in the lithium market and reduced its Greenbushes sales forecast by 20%.

More bad news emerged from Greenbushes at the start of this month when local residents voiced concerns about the mine's environmental impact on the community.

Residents living near the mine, one of the world's largest hard rock lithium mines, voiced health concerns resulting from dust emissions.

A week later, IGO announced that CFO Kathleen Bozanic had handed in her resignation and that she would leave the company later this year.

If we look further back through the archives, we can see that IGO's bad press is not limited to this year.

And the company's latest half-year results left investors with little to celebrate.

IGO posted a loss after tax of $782 million as revenues sank 35% to $284 million.

Some good news

Despite challenges, the company finished the first half with $247 million in cash and an undrawn $720 million debt facility.

And while lithium prices are expected to remain subdued for the near term, forecasts still point to rising lithium prices over the longer term.

Amid rising demand for EVS and clean energy solutions, lithium miners and producers that can survive the prolonged downturn in prices will likely benefit as competition and supply thin.

As such, some analysts are backing IGO shares.    

Goldman Sachs has retained its buy rating and a $4.60 price target on IGO shares.

Based on its current share price of $3.40, this implies a potential upside of about 35% over the next 12 months.

Still, it's too early for me to buy IGO shares.

Motley Fool contributor Steve Holland has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Materials Shares

A man sitting at his dining table looks at his laptop and ponders the share price.
Materials Shares

ASX lithium shares 'compelling' as top broker adjusts ratings

UBS predicts the global oil shock caused by the war in Iran will drive higher demand for electric vehicles.

Read more »

Three workers jump in the air at a steel factory.
Materials Shares

This ASX steel stock is unlocking hidden value. So why is it falling today?

BlueScope shares fall after an update on surplus land developments.

Read more »

A man slumps crankily over his morning coffee as it pours with rain outside.
Materials Shares

Guess which ASX mining stock is crashing 24% today

The miner is raising capital for the fourth time in as many years.

Read more »

A man wearing a suit and holding an EV charger gives the thumbs up.
Materials Shares

3 reasons to buy this high flying ASX lithium stock for the long term

World-class assets, strong balance sheet, and smart growth support long-term outlook.

Read more »

Young successful engineer, with blueprints, notepad, and digital tablet, observing the project implementation on construction site and in mine.
Materials Shares

Is this ASX iron ore stock a better buy than Fortescue?

Bell Potter thinks this stock could rise 90%.

Read more »

Lion holding and screaming into a yellow loudspeaker on a blue background, symbolising an announcement from Liontown.
Materials Shares

Are Liontown shares a buy, hold, or sell?

Ord Minnett has given its verdict on this lithium miner.

Read more »

two business people shake hands through the glass wall of a business office with a board table and laptop computer in view between them.
Materials Shares

A major long-term deal is lifting this ASX stock today

Nufarm shares are edging higher after locking in a long-term biofuels deal.

Read more »

Miner holding a silver nugget.
Materials Shares

Why are these ASX silver stocks racing higher today?

A 4% silver rise sparked double-digit gains in silver shares.

Read more »