NextDC Ltd (ASX: NXT) shares enjoyed a welcome bounce on Tuesday.
After getting nailed over the previous three trading days amid the broader Trump tariff market turmoil, shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) data centre operator and developer closed up 1.59% yesterday at $10.20.
Still, shares have a long way to go before retaking the closing highs of $18.44, which were notched on 9 July last year. At that point, the ASX 200 data centre stock had gained more than 52% over the prior 12 months.
So, with the stock now down 45% since last July and down 32% year to date, should I buy the big dip on NextDC shares?
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What's next for NextDC shares?
NextDC has been a major beneficiary of the booming growth outlook for artificial intelligence.
As the company actively expanded its AI-enabled data centre space and secured funding for further growth in 2023 and early 2024, investors piled in.
But not everyone is convinced that this rapid AI-fuelled growth is sustainable.
Like MPC Markets' Jonathan Tacadena, who has a sell recommendation on NextDC shares (courtesy of The Bull).
"The share price of this data centre operator has dropped sharply in 2025 up until April 2," he said.
According to Tacadena:
We believe there's more downside risk after Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: MSFT) abandoned major data centre expansion plans in the US and Europe.
This signals a slowdown in artificial intelligence (AI) driven demand, raising concerns about a potential oversupply in the sector. In our view, the hype surrounding AI data centres is fading.
Tacadena concluded, "Given these headwinds, we believe it's time to consider reducing or selling exposure to NXT."
Sanlam Private Wealth's Remo Greco has a more moderate view on the outlook for NextDC shares and the growth path for AI (courtesy of The Bull).
"NXT operates a network of data centres," said Greco, who has a hold recommendation on the ASX 200 stock.
Greco said:
The company is capitalising on the artificial intelligence theme. However, the share price has fallen significantly after capital raisings diluted the stock.
Net revenue of $167.8 million in the first half of fiscal year 2025 was up 13% on the prior corresponding period. Underlying EBITDA [earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation] of $105.4 million was up 3%.
While not ready to pull the trigger just yet, Greco believes NextDC stock will rebound in good time.
"We expect the share price to recover as the company continues its data centre expansion plans in Australia and the Asia Pacific," he said.
The buy case for the ASX 200 data centre stock
A number of prominent analysts remain bullish about the outlook for NextDC shares.
Citi, for example, believes that Microsoft could still take up further capacity at NextDC's Melbourne data centre locations.
The broker recently retained its buy rating on the ASX 200 stock with an $18.70 price target.
That represents a potential upside of 83% from Tuesday's closing price.
