Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares have gone up significantly in the past couple of years. The ASX bank share has done a good job compared to its peers at growing profit over the last few years. It's worth considering how much profit the bank could make in the next few years.
The FY25 half-year result demonstrated the bank's ability to grow profit despite the difficult operating environment with low credit demand and high interest rates. HY25 cash net profit after tax (NPAT) rose 7% compared to the second half of FY24, though it only rose 2% year-over-year.
Let's have a look at how much profit UBS expects the bank generate in future periods.
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This year, FY25
UBS expects CBA to make more than $10 billion of net profit in the 2025 financial year. The broker recently said in a note after the HY25 result that the bank is benefiting from a better-than-expected outcome for the net interest margin (NIM), which is how much net profit CBA is making on its lending. The "ongoing lower expected credit losses" are another positive for CBA shares.
Stronger profits in FY26
Broker UBS noted that CBA's earnings per share (EPS) could rise at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of between 2.5% to 3% over the next three years. UBS believes CBA's current price/earnings (P/E) ratio does not support that level of growth. It said:
…CBA is unlikely to grow into its multiple in the near with the underlying share price performance, in our view, more dependant of underlying earnings, NTA growth and capital returns. We maintain our Sell rating with a $115/share price target.
In other words, the broker is projecting that the CBA share price could fall by 24% over the next year.
Having said all of that, the broker is still expecting CBA's net profit to increase by 4.4% to $10.7 billion.
Even better in FY27
The company's profit could continue to climb in the 2027 financial year, with expectations of loan growth.
According to UBS, the business could grow its net profit by another 3.4% to $11.1 billion. While that's not exactly rocketing profit growth, it'd be impressive to continue to growing earnings year after year.
Profit accelerates in FY28
Who knows what the RBA interest rate will be in the 2028 financial year, or what the credit demand will be? A lot can happen between now and then.
However, UBS is expecting profit to continue rising in FY28 and this could see the bank's profit rise approximately $500 million. The broker is expecting CBA to grow net profit by 4.3% in FY28.
Best of all, FY29
In the 2029 financial year, CBA's net profit could grow at a pleasing rate and finish at the highest level of this series of projections, according to UBS.
UBS is projecting CBA could grow its net profit by 4.75% in FY29, reaching $12.1 billion for the bottom line.
