Owning Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares has been a volatile ride over the last few years. The ASX mining share has ridden the ups and downs of the iron ore price, which is largely unpredictable.
While the company can't control what happens with commodity prices, it can diversify its operations and work on growing production levels.
Rio Tinto is quite different to what it was five years ago, with a significant exposure to both copper and lithium, which it sees as important decarbonisation commodities that could see rising demand. Resources like iron ore, aluminium and bauxite are also part of the portfolio.
How will the profit generation perform in the next few years? Let's have a look at what experts from UBS are predicting for the ASX mining share's profit.
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Profit to fall in FY25?
With the iron ore price down to US$102 per tonne, it's likely that the average price in 2025 will be lower than the average price in 2024.
UBS is projecting that Rio Tinto's net profit after tax (NPAT) is forecast to fall to US$10.9 billion.
The broker noted that the ASX mining share has guided that the 2025 unit costs are projected to rise by 3% year over year to between US$23 per tonne and US$24.5 per tonne, but still expects those costs to moderate to US$20 per tonne in the medium-term.
The miner has confirmed the total loss of iron ore supply from the four cyclones is currently estimated at around 13mt, of which the miner has plans to mitigate "around half of the course of the year". A full assessment of the cost of disruption will be undertaken at the end of the first quarter.
Rio Tinto also expects first production at the large iron ore project in Africa called Simandou at the end of 2025, with a ramp-up to capacity over 30 months.
The miner said the copper ramp-up continues to "progress well" with copper volumes expected to lift more than 50% in 2025 and average 500kt per year between 2028 to 2036.
UBS also said it's too early to assess the financial impact of tariffs on the Canadian businesses and Rio Tinto (shares) as a whole.
Recovery of profit in FY26
The 2026 financial year could be a materially stronger year for the ASX mining share following the production increases of iron ore and copper that I outlined above.
If things go according to UBS' projections, Rio Tinto could see its net profit jump by approximately US$1 billion to US$11.9 billion.
Stable earnings in FY27
Rio Tinto is expected to see another year where net profit generation is well over US$11 billion in FY27.
While the ASX mining share could see the net profit fall by 1.5%, that's not much of a change by Rio Tinto's standards. The resources business is expected by UBS to make US$11.8 billion of net profit in the 2027 financial year.
Profit jumps in FY28
The 2028 financial year is when the new projects could provide a useful boost to Rio Tinto's profit-making abilities.
In FY28, UBS is projecting Rio Tinto could grow its net profit by an impressive 13% to US$13.3 billion.
Best earnings year in FY29
The final year of this series of projections could be the best of all.
According to the estimates by UBS, owners of Rio Tinto shares could see their company make US$14.1 billion of net profit which would be pleasing growth of 6.1%. This level of profit would represent a rise of profit of about 30% since FY25. That'd be impressive, in my opinion.
