S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) copper stocks are marching higher today as copper futures just set new records.
Shares in Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR), perhaps Australia's most pure-play ASX 200 copper stock, are up 1.0% at $11.55 a share. This sees the Sandfire Resources share price up 24.0% so far in 2025.
Shares in dual-listed, Canadian-based Capstone Copper Corp (ASX: CSC), which joined the ASX on 8 April last year, are up 1.3% at $9.82 a share. Capstone Copper has been struggling this year, with shares down 3.3% year to date.
And when you're looking at ASX 200 copper stocks these days, you can't ignore BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP).
Iron ore remains BHP's top revenue earner, but the miner's copper earnings are steadily growing and come in at number two.
In FY 2024, BHP's copper production increased by 9% to 1.87 million tonnes.
BHP's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) from its copper sales for the full year came in at US$8.6 billion. That was up 29% from FY 2023. And it saw copper making up 29% of BHP's FY 2024 EBITDA.
In the first half of the 2025 financial year (H1 FY 2025), BHP's underlying copper EBITDA was up 44% year on year to US$5 billion. Over the half year, copper grew to represent 39% of BHP's underlying EBITDA.
The BHP share price is up 1.7% today at $39.70 a share. But with iron ore prices slipping and forecast to still fall further, BHP shares remain down 0.7% in 2025.
So, what's all this about new copper records?
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ASX 200 copper stocks eyeing US$12,000 per tonne
At the beginning of 2025, ASX 200 copper stocks were looking at copper prices of US$8,768 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange (LME).
A few hours ago, the red metal hit US$10,038 per tonne on the LME. That's up 14.5% year to date.
Though that's not the new record we're talking about.
That record relates to copper futures on New York's Comex exchange.
As Bloomberg reports, the difference between front-month Comex and LME prices reached a record high of more than US$1,400 a tonne overnight on Monday.
Copper futures are being driven higher on two fronts.
First, major global copper producer Glencore announced it was temporarily pausing shipments after an issue at its smelter.
Second, traders are expecting a huge increase in copper shipments to the United States ahead of potential 25% tariffs on the red metal signalled by US President Donald Trump.
Matt Schwab, head of investor solutions at hedge fund Quantix Commodities, noted this record disconnect is being spurred by "the uncertainty around tariffs, especially when they would be implemented".
And if Mercuria's head of metals trading, Kostas Bintas, has it right, ASX 200 copper stocks could be looking at prices in excess of US$12,000 per tonne as the flood of copper heading into the US crimps supplies across the globe.
