Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd (ASX: FLT) shares outpaced the benchmark to close up 0.49% on Monday.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) travel stock ended the day trading for $14.43 apiece.
Longer-term, however, the picture has been a bit grimmer.
Year to date the ASX 200 travel stock is down a little over 13%. And shares have fallen 32% since this time last year. Though that doesn't include the 41 cents a share in fully franked dividends Flight Centre paid out over the full year.
That's a look in the rearview.
The question now is, can Flight Centre shares stage a rebound in 2025?
For some greater insight into that question, we defer to Shaw and Partners' Jed Richards (courtesy of The Bull).
Can Flight Centre shares take off in 2025?
"We were surprised to see the stock trading above $22 in 2024 as excessive investor enthusiasm noted increases in world travel," said Richards, who has a sell recommendation on Flight Centre shares.
The ASX 200 travel stock last topped $22 a share in early October. That was down to $17.72 a share at market close on 25 February.
The stock has since fallen 18.57% following the release of Flight Centre's half-year results on 26 February.
Commenting on those results, Richards said:
Investors were disappointed with the first half result in fiscal year 2025 and punished the stock. While revenue of $1.328 billion was up 3.2%, statutory profit after income tax of $59.6 million was down 31.2%. Shares in the travel agency giant closed at $17.72 on February 25, the day prior to its results. The shares were trading at $14.32 on March 20.
Atop the big hit to statutory profits in the six months to 31 December, Richards also pointed to potential looming headwinds for Flight Centre posed by United States President Donald Trump's sweeping global tariff campaign.
"The international travel market may be impacted by slowing global growth in response to higher prices from tariffs amid geopolitical uncertainty," Richards said.
The hold and the buy case for the ASX 200 travel stock
Consensus analyst recommendations on CommSec have Flight Centre shares rated as a 'moderate buy'.
While Goldman Sachs has a neutral rating on the ASX 200 travel agency, the broker has a 12-month price target of $17.50 a share. That would imply a potential upside of more than 21% from Monday's closing price.
Morgans has an even more bullish outlook. Following the big sell-down in the wake of Flight Centre's half-year results release, the broker maintained its add rating with a price target of $19.80. That's more than 37% above yesterday's closing price.
