It's been a fairly miserable day for ASX investors so far this Tuesday. At the time of writing, the ASX 200 has slumped by a nasty 0.75%, leaving the index at around 8,175 points. But let's talk about what's happening with Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) shares.
Qantas shares are defying the broader market's malaise today to push higher. The ASX 200 travel share and national carrier closed at the tantalising price of $9.99 yesterday. But this morning, Qantas once again pushed up into record territory, minting a fresh new all-time high of $10.30 just before midday today.
At the time of writing, Qantas shares are enjoying a 1.8% lift at $10.16.
This is a historic share price milestone for Qantas to hit indeed. As recently as October 2023, the airline was going for under $4.80 a share. That means investors have enjoyed a gain worth more than 110% in under 18 months.
Check it out for yourself below:
It's not hard to see why investors have been flocking to the Flying Kangaroo.
Last week, Qantas released its latest earnings. And boy, did they delight investors.
As we covered at the time, these earnings saw Qantas post a 9% rise in revenues to $12.13 billion for the first half of FY2025. Profits before tax swelled to 11% to $1.39 billion, whilst net profits lifted 6% to $923 million. This enabled Qantas to announce its first dividend in the post-COVID era.
Investors will enjoy an interim dividend of 16.5 cents per share, as well as a special dividend of 9.9 cents per share next month. These dividends will come with full franking credits attached.
So, with all of this in mind, is it worth buying Qantas shares at over $10 today?
Are Qantas shares still a buy at $10?
Unfortunately for any Qantas lovers out there, I don't think Qantas is a buy today. Far from it, in fact.
Airlines are notoriously difficult businesses to make decent money on. Don't take it from me. Take it from the legendary investor Warren Buffett. Here's what Buffett said about airlines back in 2002:
If a capitalist had been present at Kitty Hawk back in the early 1900s, he should have shot Orville Wright. He would have saved his progeny money.
But seriously, the airline business has been extraordinary. It has eaten up capital over the past century like almost no other business because people seem to keep coming back to it and putting fresh money in. You've got huge fixed costs, you've got strong labor unions and you've got commodity pricing. That is not a great recipe for success.
I have an 800 number now that I call if I get the urge to buy an airline stock. I call at two in the morning and I say: 'My name is Warren and I'm an aeroholic.' And then they talk me down.
I can see Buffett's point. Airlines are one of the most problematic business models, in my view.
Demand is highly fickle for one, which airlines have to constantly adapt to. Air travel is highly cyclical, with demand dependent on a range of factors that are out of Qantas' control, including currency movements and the state of the economy.
Capital requirements to keep the business running are also extremely high. Aeroplanes are not cheap, and neither is maintaining them.
Qantas also has to deal with fuel price fluctuations, which are one of the company's largest inputs and usually happen to rise when the global economy is doing well.
The inherent cyclicality of Qantas' business means that Qantas itself is a highly cyclical stock. Buying a cyclical stock right when it is hitting new all-time highs seems like a silly idea to me. As such, I wouldn't consider buying Qantas shares today at anywhere near $10.
Let's go back to the Qantas share price for a moment. If an investor had picked up Qantas shares back in July 2002, they would have been sitting at a share price loss in October 2023. That's more than 20 years of your money going nowhere.
This is probably what Buffett meant by "not a great recipe for success".
It's a no on Qantas from me.
