The Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) share price has been largely trading sideways since the start of 2025, as the chart below shows. However, in the past six months, Qantas shares have soared 51%, so the market is clearly excited about this upcoming report.
The ASX travel share has already given some guidance about what investors can expect in the upcoming result, so let's look at that first.
We can't truly know what the business will report, but we have been given different bits of information that can give us an insight into possible trends.
Image source: Getty Images
Company guidance
The company's last meaningful update was near the end of October 2024, and the airline hasn't changed its guidance since then.
Qantas revealed that its first half of trading was in line with expectations and that both Qantas and Jetstar were seeing "stable demand" in their respective expectations.
Jetstar's domestic unit revenue outperformed previous expectations, while Qantas' domestic load factors and demand for corporate travel improved year over year.
The company group domestic revenue per available seat kilometre (RASK) is expected to increase between 3% and 5% in the first half of FY25, while group international RASK is expected to fall between 7% to 10% year over year.
Qantas loyalty was trading in line with expectations thanks to the strength of its classic plus flight rewards. This division is expecting underlying operating profit (EBIT) growth of at least 10%. However, it's expecting to see lower earnings in the FY25 first half due to the launch of classic plus flight rewards.
The estimated fuel cost for the first half is estimated at approximately $2.55 billion.
Qantas also plans to make a 'thank you' payment of $28 million to Qantas employees in the first half of FY25.
Now, let's look at some commentary on the ASX travel share.
Big profits but losing market share?
According to airline analysis by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC), Virgin Australia has overtaken Qantas as the leading carrier of domestic travellers following the demise of Rex.
Virgin's market share increased by 3.1% in the second half of 2024, hitting 35% in December, climbing above Qantas' 34.6%. However, Jetstar also had a market share of 29%, so Qantas Group is still ahead of Virgin.
The ACCC noted that passenger numbers increased across the airline industry in the 2024 calendar year, with the most significant increases noted for Virgin Australia (up 15.8%) and Jetstar (up 11.2%). Passenger numbers rose 3.2% for Qantas.
The ACCC also noted there were relatively higher airfares in October and November 2024, but this "stabilised" in December.
According to reporting by The Australian on Qantas, Tony Dillon, former Qantas head of strategy and now aviation consultant, said that the airline's return on invested capital was "awesome last year" and it will be "spectacular this time around". Dillon then said:
It's nice for investors, but as the CEO it puts you under pressure … with governments, with airports (and staff). If they want to have a crack, it's harder to fight. They can't play the 'poor' card, they can't play the 'inflation' card.
Fund manager Steve Johnson thinks the profitability of the domestic business makes up for challenges faced by the international business. He also believes the Qantas share price may be too high. Johnson said, according to The Australian:
I have a view that the concerns have been overblown considering the strength of the domestic business. I don't attribute a huge amount of value to the international business. It's highly competitive and fluctuates between losing money and making money.
On replacing the airline's ageing aircraft fleet, Johnson said:
They need to get on with it. It's costing a lot of money to keep flying those planes.
Time will tell how profitable Qantas has been in the six months to 31 December 2024, but we already have some good indications.
