Web Travel Group Ltd (ASX: WEB) shares have had a tough run of it since September.
That's when the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) travel stock spun off its online travel agency business, Webjet Group (ASX: WJL).
Web Travel is now focused on its WebBeds business, which connects hotels and other travel service providers to travellers around the world. Webjet began trading as an independent entity on 23 September.
On that same day, Web Travel shares opened at $7.37.
At yesterday's closing price of $4.92, that sees the ASX 200 travel stock down 33.2% since the split.
As you can see on the chart above, most of that pain came in a single day.
On 14 October, Web Travel shares crashed 35.6% to end the day trading for $4.53. Investors were overheating their sell buttons after the company reported lower 1H FY 2025 earnings margins. Preliminary underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) margins were lowered to around 44%, down from prior guidance of 52%.
Some sizeable daily gains were also posted over the past months, like on 27 November, when the company released its audited half-year results.
Web Travel shares gained 13.5% on the day after reporting a 23% year on year increase in booking for the six months to 4.3 million. And total transaction value (TTV) was up 25% to $2.59 billion.
Which brings us back to our headline question.
With the ASX 200 travel stock still down 33% since divesting from Webjet, should you buy shares now?
Are Web Travel shares trading for a bargain?
While the future remains inherently uncertain, several prominent investment experts are bullish on the outlook for Web Travel shares in 2025.
Among them, the analysts at Blackwattle Investment Partners, who hold the ASX 200 travel stock in their fund.
At the Blackwattle Small Cap Quality Fund December update, the analysts pointed to "highly regarded" CEO John Gusic's long-term plans for the business, which include growing the company's Total Transaction Value (TTV) from $4 billion in 2024 to $10 billion in 2030.
According to Blackwattle:
The softness in near-term trading in October gave cause for the market to question the viability of management's long-term targets. However, at the company's recent interim result announcement in November, Gusic reaffirmed his commitment to the long-term targets.
While time will tell if these targets are achievable, we believe there is little in the current price for them with the stock trading at 17x FY26 EPS [earnings per share], and Gusic's stellar track record suggests he deserves the benefit of the doubt.
The analysts at Shaw and Partners also expect to see a rebound in Web Travel shares. The broker recently retained its buy rating and increased its price target to $6.70. That represents a potential upside of 26.7% from Thursday's closing price.
