CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares are trading at $276.60 on Thursday, up 0.09% at the time of writing.
This ASX 200 healthcare giant has strong broker support at the moment.
Many major brokerage firms have a buy rating on CSL and 12-month share price targets of $330 to $345.
But boutique investment management firm, Firetrail says it has lost confidence in CSL shares.
Firetrail reduced its holding in its Australian High Conviction Fund significantly last year.
In a recent note, Firetrail said CSL was one of its largest positions in the fund in December 2023.
Today, the fund is underweight in CSL.
Firetail said:
Today our position is well below index weight due to our loss of confidence in the medium-term margin improvement story playing out as we had initially forecast.
The entry of new competition and a couple of trial hiccups have eroded what was previously a compelling earnings story.
What about the CSL share price?
Firetail made no comment about the performance of the CSL share price.
But as long-term investors know, CSL has not been able to maintain any price growth since the pandemic.
In early 2020, the CSL share price was about $300. Five years later, it's trading 7.8% lower than that.
Over the past couple of years, many brokers have predicted that CSL shares will break through $300 again and, most importantly, stay there.
Back in July 2023, 12 brokers had price targets of $313 to $340 for the end of FY24 that did not eventuate.
CSL shares closed at $295.21 on the last day of trading for FY24.
The ASX 200 biotech finished the calendar year 2024 at $281.58 apiece, down 1.77% over the 12 months.
The stock did rise to a 52-week high of $313.55 in July, but it could not maintain this level. After the company released its FY24 results in August, a painful second-half decline began.
CSL vastly underperformed the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which rose 7.49% last year.
Long-term investors in CSL aren't really used to this sort of sluggishness in the share price.
The stock has an amazing history of reasonably steady long-term growth but it has struggled to stay above $300 per share for any length of time since the pandemic.
Check out the chart below. The CSL share price has moved in a pretty tight band between 2020 and 2024.
Now, take a look at this second chart, which documents the stock's long-term growth trajectory.
It paints a picture of reliable and gradual share price growth prior to the pandemic in 2020.
What will happen to the CSL share price in 2025?
As we mentioned earlier, many brokers maintain a positive outlook for the CSL share price in 2025.
But it's interesting to note that CommSec downgraded the consensus recommendation on CSL shares last month from strong buy to moderate buy. The rating changed on 17 December.
Of the 15 analysts rating the stock on CommSec, nine say it's a strong buy, four say moderate buy, and two say hold.
You can check out specific broker ratings and price targets for the end of 2025 here.
What's next for CSL?
CSL will release its FY25 half-year results and announce its interim dividend on 11 February.
