S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold stock Newmont Corp (ASX: NEM) is off to a good start in 2025.
The Newmont share price closed at $59.54 on 31 December, with shares trading for $61.44 at time of writing on Wednesday.
That sees Newmont stock up 3.2% partly through the sixth trading day 2025. For some context, the ASX 200 is up 2.2% over this same period.
Newmont shares first began trading on the ASX on 27 October 2023. The ASX listing came after the American-based (and multi-listed) gold mining giant acquired Newcrest Mining in April that year.
Over the past 12 months, however, the ASX 200 gold stock underperformed many of its peers, with shares up just over 3% since this time last year. Though that's not including the $1.054 a share in unfranked dividends Newmont delivered to investors over the year.
Turning our sights to the year ahead, here's why MPC Markets' Mark Gardner expects Newmont to outperform in 2025 (courtesy of The Bull).
ASX 200 gold stock forecast to outperform in 2025
Atop gold production, Newmont also digs up commodities like copper, silver, zinc and lead.
At its third quarter results, announced on 24 October, the ASX 200 gold stock reported quarterly attributable gold production of 1.7 million ounces.
What does that mean?
Well, it means that Newmont produced 1.4 million ounces of shiny gold, along with 430,000 ounces of gold equivalent from copper, silver, zinc and lead. That included 37,000 tonnes of copper production.
The miner's diverse asset base is one of the reasons Gardner expects Newmont to outperform in 2025.
According to Gardner:
As the world's largest gold mining company, Newmont benefits from a diverse portfolio of tier 1 assets in favourable jurisdictions, ensuring stable long-term production, robust free cash flow and high profit margins.
Gardner said his optimistic outlook is also driven by Newmont's strong balance sheet. In the third quarter the ASX 200 gold stock achieved free cash flow of US$760 million.
And Gardner expects that Newmont's US$500 million in cost saving synergies, expected by the end of calendar year 2025, should expand its margins and increase its free cash flow.
"We are very positive about the outlook for gold and copper," he added.
"Gold due to the increasing US debt, lower interest rates and the rise of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). And copper due to growth in artificial intelligence data centres and the transition to cleaner energy."
Gardner pointed to the "lack of copper mine development in the past decade" coinciding with "increasing demand for copper now and in the future" as likely to support copper prices in the year ahead.
