The Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) share price had a turbulent year in 2024, finishing more than 10% in the red.
It has slipped a further 4% in the past month of trade, closing at $114.65 apiece on Tuesday.
Rio is a diversified mining giant and has ambitious growth plans in some of 'critical' commodities, including iron ore, copper, and lithium.
But with the share price down, is now the right time to invest? Let's see what the experts think.
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Rio Tinto share price sensitive to commodity prices
Being a miner and producer of various commodities and metals, Rio Tinto is what they call a price taker, meaning it doesn't get to set the prices for the 'product' it sells. The market does that.
So the Rio Tinto share price is sensitive to fluctuations in commodity prices.
More recently, the mining giant has entered the arena for lithium, a metal used in batteries to charge electric vehicles (EVs).
Lithium prices are heavily depressed from their March 2024 high of CNY 116,500 per tonne. They now trade at CNY 75,450 per tonne.
In October last year, Rio Tinto announced a $10 billion acquisition of Arcadium Lithium (ASX: LTM). It also has two additional lithium plays: its Jadar project in Serbia and the Rincon development in Argentina.
Ord Minnett expects the Rio Tinto share price to benefit from the miner's lithium exposure.
As my colleague James reported, the broker said these acquisitions could lift Rio's production "to over 450,000 tonnes, up from 75,000 tonnes today."
It rates Rio Tinto shares a buy, with a price target of $131 apiece.
What about iron ore?
Lithium is the latest play, but Rio's bread and butter is in iron ore.
This commodity, too, has been hammered this year. At the time of writing, it is trading at US$99.44 per tonne, down from US$140 per tonne in January 2024.
Goldman Sachs is also bullish on the company and reiterated its buy call in a December note to clients.
In the update, Goldman says Rio has multiple projects that are "shovel-ready".
It also reckons developments at the Rhodes Bridge iron ore deposit in the Pilbara have "the potential to be significant" for the company.
It sees the Rio Tinto share price trading on an "attractive free cash flow and dividend yield" and has bullish estimates on copper and aluminium, two metals critical to Rio's earnings.
Meanwhile, as reported by my Foolish colleague Tristan, broker UBS forecasts FY25 revenue of US$51.5 billion for the miner. It values the Rio Tinto share price at $124 apiece.
It sees iron ore prices staging a recovery, along with tailwinds for copper and aluminium, thanks to "compelling supply dynamics".
In fact, according to CommSec, the consensus of analyst estimates rates Rio a buy. Based on these expert comments, I think the company is well-positioned.
Foolish takeout
Rio Tinto appears well-positioned in the new year according to top brokers, who base their opinions on the outlook for commodities like iron ore, copper and aluminium.
Lithium has proven to be an interesting space these past few years, but like all commodities, supply and demand dynamics determine prices. What happens from here, no wizardry can forecast.
In the meantime, seven brokers currently rate Rio a buy, versus two holds and one sell recommendation, according to CommSec.
