Will African iron ore make or break Rio Tinto shares?

Here's what one expert thinks of the African expansion.

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares may be widely known for giving investors exposure to Australian iron ore. But, the company may soon generate significant iron ore earnings from Africa.

According to The Australian, Shaw and Partners senior investment adviser Jed Richards noted that while Rio Tinto has historically focused on iron ore, the new African iron ore project Simandou should increase the company's supply later this year.

The Simandou mountain range covers more than 100km and is located in the southeast of the Republic of Guinea.

Two miners standing together.

Image source: Getty Images

What is planned for the African mine?

Rio Tinto says the subsoils of Simandou contain a world-class ore reserve of high-grade iron ore, estimated at around 1.5 billion tonnes.

Simandou's mining concession is divided into four blocks. Rio Tinto holds the rights to blocks three and four through Rio Tinto Simfer, a joint venture between Rio Tinto and partners, including the Republic of Guinea.

The Aussie miner is also working with the entities involved with blocks one and two to co-develop the infrastructure needed to export the mined iron ore, including 600km of rail and port infrastructure.

First production from the Simfer mine is expected in 2025, ramping up over 30 months to an annualised capacity of 60 million tonnes per year (with Rio Tinto's share being 27 million tonnes).

According to Rio Tinto, the mine will initially deliver a single fines product before transitioning to a dual fines product of blast furnace and direct reduction ready ore.

Rio Tinto's share of the initial capital expenditure is estimated at more than US$6 billion.

Expert views on Rio Tinto shares and Simandou

Shaw and Partners senior investment adviser Richards believes the new iron ore supply is "expected to contribute to the softening of the global iron ore price."

Richards is also cautious about the fact that the project is located in Africa, which is seen as a less stable mining jurisdiction than Australia. The expert said:

I have often witnessed companies that operate in Africa come across trouble. Operational and geopolitical risks seems to be more problematic in Africa. 

Richards said the Rio Tinto share price has "held up relatively well" and that he prefers to gain mining exposure from "more diversified miners".

I'd suggest that Rio Tinto's exposure to other commodities that have performed better than iron ore, such as copper, aluminium, and bauxite, may be why its shares have not fallen as much as those of other iron ore miners such as Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG).

Richards (and Shaw and Partners) rate Rio Tinto as a sell. Time will tell whether that investment call proves correct.

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has positions in Fortescue. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Resources Shares

A group of five engineers wearing hard hats and some in high visibility vests raise their arms in happy celebration atop a building site with construction and equipment in the background.
Broker Notes

Why this $1.4 billion ASX All Ords mining stock is tipped to jump 30%

A top wealth manager forecasts more than 30% returns from this ASX mining stock.

Read more »

Flying Australian dollars, symbolising dividends.
Resources Shares

Everything you need to know about the BHP dividend

This is how much BHP shareholders are going to be paid.

Read more »

Two miners at a mine site on their tablets, with mining machinery behind them.
Resources Shares

Lycopodium lands $37 million contract for Bolivian silver project

Lycopodium share price in spotlight after winning a $37 million EPCM contract for Bolivia’s San Cristóbal mine expansion.

Read more »

Miner puts thumbs up in front of gold mine quarry.
Resources Shares

Westgold Resources: Maiden Fletcher Ore Reserve announcement

Westgold Resources unveiled a maiden Fletcher Ore Reserve and a major resource upgrade, strengthening long‑term prospects.

Read more »

Cheerful businessman with a mining hat on the table sitting back with his arms behind his head while looking at his laptop's screen.
Earnings Results

Deterra Royalties posts profit rise and boosts dividend in FY26 results

Here's what the company reported for the financial year and how big that dividend will be.

Read more »

Machinery at a mine site.
Resources Shares

Evolution Mining shares are up 76%. Could results spark another surge?

Evolution needs a strong FY27 outlook to keep its rally going.

Read more »

Businesswoman holds hand out to shake.
Resources Shares

Ausgold shares in focus after OceanaGold's $776m takeover offer

OceanaGold launched a recommended takeover at a sizeable premium, offering scrip or cash and ongoing project exposure.

Read more »

A female miner wearing a high vis vest and hard hard smiles and holds a clipboard while inspecting a mine site with a colleague.
Resources Shares

Develop Global awards $275 million Yitirrti plant contract as growth plans advance

Yitirrti production is on track for mid-2028.

Read more »