ASX bank share National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) is due to hand in its FY24 report soon. Considering the current state of interest rates, inflation, and the Australian economy, this could be a very interesting result for NAB shareholders.
The past year has been a great time to own NAB shares. The NAB share price has climbed over 30%, as shown in the chart above.
The bank is due to release its FY24 result on 7 November. This will be the day to see whether the numbers reported back-up investor excitement about the ASX bank share.
As experienced investors know, a result isn't just about what the pure numbers tell us. The market reaction is usually based on how the company has performed compared to expectations. So, let's look at what some investors expect from the business.
Image source: Getty Images
FY24 forecasts for NAB shares
An important number for shareholders is the earnings per share (EPS) figure. This figure tells us how much profit a company returns per share, giving some underlying backing for each share's value.
Broker UBS forecasts that NAB could generate $2.17 of EPS in FY24. The consensus of market analysts (meaning the average) forecast for FY24 EPS is $2.25.
UBS predicts that NAB may make $20.3 billion in revenue, $9.87 billion in pre-tax profit, and $6.9 billion in net profit for the overall 2024 financial year.
As the bank has already reported its FY24 first-half result and the FY24 third quarter, there is only one quarter of FY24's numbers that investors don't know about.
For the FY24 fourth quarter, UBS predicts that the ASX bank share will generate net operating income of $5.1 billion and $1.6 billion of cash earnings (down 9% year over year), including a credit impairment charge of $340 million. The broker projects statutory net profit for the fourth quarter to be $1.45 billion (down 16% year over year).
The market consensus is more optimistic for the fourth quarter, with cash earnings projected to be $1.76 billion and statutory net profit of $1.62 billion
Added to the third quarter, UBS is expecting NAB to show it made $3.35 billion of net profit in the second half of FY24. The market consensus numbers show expectations of just over $3.5 billion of net profit.
What about the dividend?
Some owners of NAB shares may be looking very intently at what the ASX bank share pays in dividends.
NAB paid an annual dividend per share of $1.67 in FY23, and the forecast on Commsec suggests the bank could pay an annual dividend per share of $1.68 in FY24. That would mean a final dividend of 84 cents could be declared with the FY24 result if the prediction is correct.
Time will tell how close all of these forecasts are to reality.
I'm intrigued to see what the bank says regarding its loan growth, lending margins and its arrears.
