Up 35% in a year, is now the time to short CBA shares?

This investing expert expects CBA shares are about to deflate.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares are back in the green in afternoon trade on Thursday.

At the time of writing, shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) bank stock are swapping hands for $134.45 apiece after closing yesterday at $134.19.

That sees CommBank stock up 0.19% today and 34.9% higher in the past 12 months. And that's without factoring in the $4.65 a share in fully franked dividends CBA paid over the year.

But, as you may be able to discern from the chart above, CBA shares have come under some selling pressure since the market close on 20 September, sliding 6.7%.

The recent headwinds blew out of China after the government revealed new stimulus measures to boost the nation's sluggish growth. Those measures include a 0.20% reduction in the seven-day repo rate, a 0.50% cut to interest rates on existing mortgages, and a 0.50% cut to Chinese banks' reserve ratio requirements.

Now, that's not directly bad for Aussie banks.

But CBA and the other big bank stocks took a hit as ASX 200 investors rotated out of bank stocks and into the big mining stocks amid surging iron ore and copper prices.

Which brings us to…

Nervous customer in discussions at a bank.

Image source: Getty Images

Has the time come to short CBA shares?

Regal Partners chief investment officer Phil King is sticking to shorting CBA shares. However, his reasons don't involve recent or pending Chinese stimulus measures.

As The Australian Financial Review reports, King labelled CommBank stock today as "the biggest bubble in Australian banks."

King acknowledged that numerous analysts have been forecasting a big share price fall pending for Australia's biggest bank. And that a lot of traders have lost a lot of money betting against the ongoing rally.

"It has hurt a lot of people. I think people have been trying to short the stock all the way from $60 up," he said.

The contrarian trader added, "When a lot of other people give up shorting something, you know that might be the best time to do it."

With CommBank's earnings weakening amid the bank's already pricey valuation compared to global and Aussie peers, King said shorting CBA shares "will be right eventually".

CBA trades on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 23.7 times.

"What really gives me conviction on the trade at the moment is that many people are scared to short and also that earnings are starting to crack," King said.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Bank Shares

A woman holds her empty unzipped wallet upside down and dips her head to look under it to see if any money falls out of it.
Bank Shares

CBA shares hit their lowest level since February. Could $140 be next?

The banking giant's recent decline has investors watching closely.

Read more »

Happy young woman saving money in a piggy bank.
Opinions

ANZ shares have climbed 13% in a year. Is there still room to run?

Is ANZ worth buying at the current share price?

Read more »

Elderly couple cosily walking together outside.
Bank Shares

Is NAB one of the best ASX dividend shares to buy?

I run through the numbers to see what income investors could receive at today’s share price.

Read more »

A woman standing on the street looks through binoculars.
Bank Shares

Should I buy CBA shares before the end of September?

Find out what the experts tip next for CBA shares.

Read more »

Bank building in a financial district.
Bank Shares

How many ANZ shares do I need to buy for $9,000 of passive income?

Can investors bank on strong passive income?

Read more »

a hand of a man in a suit points a finger towards old fashioned brass scales that are not balanced in the foreground of the picture.
Resources Shares

Are the BHP and CBA share price headed for parity?

A leading fund manager has a surprising forecast for BHP and CBA shares.

Read more »

Man putting coins in a wooden piggy bank next to piles of coins.
Bank Shares

Which big 4 bank stock will rise the most before the end of 2026?

One has clear upside according to experts.

Read more »

Four business people wearing formal business suits and ties walk abreast on a wide paved surface with their long shadows falling on the ground ahead of them.
Bank Shares

Macquarie Group vs Commonwealth Bank: Which ASX bank is the better buy?

Weighing up Macquarie Group vs Commonwealth Bank? Read on to see which ASX bank stock I think has the edge…

Read more »