All eyes will be on Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR) shares next week.
That's because the lithium miner is scheduled to release its full year results for FY 2024 on Monday.
Ahead of the release of the results, let's take a look and see what analysts are forecasting for the ASX lithium stock.
Liontown results preview
Liontown will inevitably be reporting another sizeable loss when it releases its results next week.
That's because the lithium miner only started producing lithium at the Kathleen Valley Lithium Project at the end of July, which was a month after the end of its financial year.
According to a note out of Bell Potter, it expects no sales revenue, an EBITDA loss of $46 million, and a net loss of $55 million.
This is broadly in line with what analysts at Goldman Sachs are forecasting. They have pencilled in an EBITDA loss of $65 million and a net loss of $46.5 million.
So, all eyes will be on what management is guiding to in FY 2025. Let's see what analysts are saying about the year ahead.
FY 2025 outlook
Goldman is forecasting spodumene production of 146kt, which it expects to underpin revenue of $143 million.
However, this won't be enough to make Liontown profitable according to Goldman. It expects another year of losses before it becomes profitable in FY 2026. The broker is forecasting an EBITDA loss of $224 million and a net loss of $162 million.
Bell Potter doesn't agree with this view. It believes Liontown will generate positive EBITDA of $32 million and a loss of $58 million in FY 2025.
Both brokers believe FY 2026 will see Liontown deliver its maiden net profit. Goldman expects a net profit of $18.5 million, whereas Bell Potter is forecasting a whopping $434 million profit. The difference is likely down to Bell Potter being more upbeat about the outlook for lithium prices than Goldman Sachs.
Should you buy Liontown shares?
Goldman Sachs currently has a neutral rating but a lofty $1.15 price target on its shares. Whereas Bell Potter has a speculative buy rating and even loftier $1.90 price target.
This compares favourably to the current Liontown share price of 71 cents.
Bell Potter commented:
LTR's 100% owned Kathleen Valley lithium project remains highly strategic with initial production imminent, a long mine life and located in a tier-one location. LTR has offtake contracts with top tier EV and battery OEMs. Under our modelled assumptions, we expect that LTR is fully funded to free cash flow. We have made no changes to our earnings estimates in this report. LTR is an asset development company; our Speculative risk rating recognises this higher level of risk.
