Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC) shares have been under steep selling pressure these past few months.
Shares peaked at $8.99 in early July, before sliding sharply to trade more than 33% in the red. They are swapping hands at $6.00 apiece at the time of writing.
Meanwhile, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJIO) is up more than 5% during the same time period, meaning Whitehaven has lagged the benchmark substantially.
The decline raises the question: Is now the right time to buy into this ASX coal giant during its sell-off? Let's see what the experts think.
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Whitehaven shares recent downturn
The recent slump in Whitehaven shares is primarily due to the weakening of metallurgical coal prices.
China's slowing property market has led to reduced steel consumption, dampening demand for metallurgical coal.
Iron ore prices are incurring a similar fate, with some forecasts pointing to a US$80 per tonne scenario for the main ingredient used in steelmaking.
For coal, the downturn is made worse by "the rising share of renewable energy in Europe", according to Trading Economics.
Whitehaven is a price taker on coal, meaning it has to accept the prevailing market prices on the black rock – it doesn't set the price.
As such, its share price fluctuates closely with the price of coal.
Are brokers or fundies bullish?
August proved to be a challenging month for the company, with Whitehaven shares falling 13%, making it the largest negative contributor to the Blackwattle Mid Cap Quality Fund's performance.
Despite this, Blackwattle remains bullish on Whitehaven's prospects.
The fund highlights Whitehaven's strong FY24 results and its strategic sell-down of 30% of the Blackwater Coal mine at a significant premium to its original acquisition price from BHP. This move places Whitehaven in a net cash position, it says.
JPMorgan shares this optimistic outlook, recently upgrading Whitehaven to a buy rating with a price target of $9.20 per share.
However, not all brokers are as upbeat. Following Whitehaven's FY24 results, Barrenjoey downgraded the stock from a buy to a hold.
The investment bank argued the stock is fairly valued at this point. Analysts also expressed concerns about Whitehaven's FY25 guidance, which indicated lower volumes and higher unit costs.
Goldman Sachs also joined the downgrading spree, slashing its FY25 and FY26 earnings forecasts for Whitehaven by 41% and 57%, respectively.
The broker revised its price target to $6.80 per share, maintaining a hold rating.
Goldman points to higher costs, lower volumes, and increased net interest expenses as the main reasons for this outlook.
But according to CommSec data, eleven brokers rate the stock a buy, versus four a hold. None recommend selling Whitehaven shares.
Foolish takeaway
Whitehaven shares have been on a rollercoaster recently, driven by a weaker coal price outlook. On balance, however, experts are bullish on the stock.
Whitehaven shares are down more than 19% in the past twelve months.
