Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO) shares have been one to avoid in the last 12 months. In fact, they have been a short seller's favourite.
The stock price has been under significant pressure ever since the price of lithium plummeted from its 2021 highs. The battery metal now trades some 85% off that all-time high.
To be fair, it's not just Core Lithium shares that have been hit. The entire lithium basket has copped it. But unlike many of the other, more established producers, the stock has seen tremendous value wiped from its market cap these past three years.
You can see this on the chart below.
Is there any hope for Core Lithium? Let's take a look.
Why did Core Lithium shares plunge?
Core Lithium shares have been on a continued downtrend since 2022. They plummeted from 90 cents at the start of FY 2024 to 9.1 cents at the end.
The primary driver? The ongoing slide in global lithium prices, as mentioned. They fell from US$32,000 a tonne in 2023 to around US$11,000 a tonne by the end of FY 2024. They trade at a similar level today.
This drastic drop made mining operations unprofitable, leading Core Lithium to suspend operations at its Finniss Project in early January 2024.
The company's half-year results weren't any help. It reported $135 million in revenue but a loss after tax of $167 million. CEO Gareth Manderson's departure potentially added to the selling pressure on the company's shares.
Is there hope for investors?
Analysts remain cautious about the lithium player's prospects. Ord Minnett has a sell rating and a price target of 9 cents on Core Lithium shares, in line with the current share price.
Goldman Sachs is slightly more optimistic. It has a neutral rating, albeit with an 8 cents price target, implying a potential downside of 12%.
The broker highlighted ongoing risks, but it also noted that the company's significant cash reserves could mitigate some of the exposure to falling lithium prices.
Meanwhile, the stock is rated a moderate sell by the consensus of analyst estimates, according to CommSec.
Based on this appraisal, the sentiment on Core Lithium shares is not currently positive. What could change this? A change in the price of lithium, of course.
The company's financials could be a beacon of light. But it will need to really outshine analyst expectations, and I'm not sure if it can or not.
For instance, despite the challenging year, Core Lithium reported some positive updates in its latest quarterly update.
The company achieved record shipments of 33,027 dry metric tonnes (dmt) of spodumene concentrate, sold at an average price of US$1,078/dmt.
However, production declined by 18% as the company's Run-of-Mine stockpiles were depleted.
Time will tell what's in store for investors from here.
Foolish takeaway
Core Lithium shares have had a rough ride. Brokers aren't overly negative, noting its substantial cash reserves offer a glimmer of hope.
While investors remain cautious, in my opinion, the potential for a recovery of Core Lithium shares depends on the lithium market.
As always, conduct your own due diligence.
