Why this ASX 200 gold share could be dirt cheap

Bell Potter thinks this gold miner could be seriously undervalued. What is it saying?

| More on:
A young bank customer wearing a yellow jumper smiles as she checks her bank balance on her phone.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

With the gold price hitting a record high this month, many investors are likely to be looking to gain exposure to the precious metal.

But which ASX 200 gold shares are still good value?

One that could be better than good value is Regis Resources Ltd (ASX: RRL).

In fact, analysts at Bell Potter think this gold miner could be dirt cheap at present.

What is the broker saying about this ASX 200 gold share?

Bell Potter notes that Regis Resources has just released the definitive feasibility study (DFS) for the 100%-owned McPhillamys Gold Project in New South Wales.

The broker was pleased with the DFS and notes that project metrics were at least in line with its expectations. Its analysts explain:

In our view, the McPhillamys project presents as a strategic, long-life gold project that is highly leveraged to a rising gold price. Overall, the project metrics have been delivered either in-line with or ahead of our expectations and compare favourably with the most recent guidance on key project parameters.

Bell Potter also highlights that it was particularly pleased with its lower than expected costs. It adds:

Most specifically, pre-production CAPEX is at the lower end of our expectations and AISC are well below our expectations. AISC are also well below an industry average we most recently measured at ~A$2,100/oz. While CAPEX is relatively high compared with its Australian peer group, we believe opportunities exist to mitigate this through further Resource growth and definition of high grade satellite ore sources.

Dirt cheap

According to the note, in response to the McPhillamys DFS update, the broker has retained its buy rating with a trimmed price target of $2.70 (from $2.80).

Based on its current share price of $1.91, this implies potential upside of 41% for this ASX 200 gold share over the next 12 months.

To put that into context, a $10,000 investment would be worth $14,100 by this time next year if Bell Potter is on the money with its recommendation.

Commenting on its buy rating, the broker said:

We lower our medium-term production forecasts to match recent guidance from RRL, which includes reduced production and higher cost forecasts. This results in earnings changes in this report of: FY24: -4%; FY25: -30% and FY26: -27%. Our NPV-based valuation drops 4%, to $2.70/sh as we update for this, which is partially offset by an improved valuation for McPhillamys. We retain our Buy recommendation.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Gold

Miner standing at quarry looking upset
Gold

Buying Northern Star shares? Here's the latest on the gold miner's production woes

Northern Star provided a detailed response to the ASX regarding its FY 2026 gold sales downgrade.

Read more »

Woman with gold nuggets on her hand.
Gold

Up 177% in a year, why is this ASX 300 gold stock leaping higher again on Friday?

Investors are piling into this high-flying ASX gold stock again today. But why?

Read more »

A man leaps from a stack of gold coins to the next, each one higher than the last.
Gold

Why this ASX 200 gold stock is tipped for a 'major re-rate' in 2026

A leading fund manager expects a strong year ahead for this cashed up ASX 200 gold stock.

Read more »

Gold nugget with a red arrow going down.
Gold

Why this top-tier ASX gold stock is sliding again this week

This ASX gold miner is under pressure after cutting production guidance and facing rising caution from analysts.

Read more »

A woman holds a gold bar in one hand and puts her other hand to her forehead with an apprehensive and concerned expression on her face after watching the Ramelius share price fall today
Gold

Why is this popular ASX 200 gold stock tumbling today?

This gold miner's update has disappointed investors.

Read more »

Woman with gold nuggets on her hand.
Gold

This ASX gold giant jumped almost 5% on Wednesday. Here's why

Newmont shares jumped nearly 5% on Wednesday after the gold miner released a fresh operational update to the market.

Read more »

Image of young successful engineer, with blueprints, notepad and digital tablet, observing the project implementation on construction site and in mine.
Gold

This gold stock just hit a fresh high, but at least one broker thinks it can go higher

This gold company is on track to meet full-year guidance.

Read more »

a woman wearing a sparkly strapless dress leans on a neat stack of six gold bars as she smiles and looks to the side as though she is very happy and protective of her stash. She also has gold fingernails and gold glitter pieces affixed to her cheeks.
Gold

This ASX 100 gold stock says it is on track to hit the upper end of production guidance

This gold company has grown its cash and bullion reserves after another strong quarter.

Read more »