The Sayona Mining Ltd (ASX: SYA) share price just closed out a financial year to forget.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 300 Index (ASX: XKO) lithium stock ended FY 2023 trading at 18 cents. On 28 June, the final trading day of FY 2024, shares finished the day changing hands for 3.6 cents apiece.
That saw the Sayona Mining share price down a painful 77.8% over the year.
For some context, the ASX 300 gained 7.7% over this same period.
Here's what happened over the financial year just past.
What went wrong for the ASX lithium stock?
As you can see in the above chart, the Sayona Mining share price was in a marked downtrend for most of FY 2024. That came despite the company reporting on a number of high-grade drilling results over the course of the financial year.
The majority of the headwinds battering the miner were driven by the ongoing fall in lithium prices.
With global supply growth outpacing demand growth, lithium carbonate ended FY 2024 trading for roughly US$11,000 a tonne. That was well down from lithium's 2022 record highs. And it was less than a third of the US$32,000 a tonne we saw lithium prices averaging in 2023.
To get a better idea of how heavily this has impacted the Sayona Mining share price, we need look no further than the company's most recent half-year and quarterly updates.
Over the half-year to 31 December (H1 FY 2024), the miner reported maiden half-year revenue of $118 million. Now, that's obviously a good thing. Except it also coincided with a $32 million loss after tax for the six months.
Sayona Mining's quarterly results, released on 26 April, confirmed just how much pain the plunging lithium price was causing.
As Motley Fool analyst James Mickleboro pointed out on the day:
The company reported a sizeable 142% quarter on quarter increase in concentrate sales volumes to 58,055 dmt. However, this was achieved with an average realised selling price of AU$999 per dmt.
This means that the company is selling its lithium for over AU$500 less than it costs to dig it out of the ground.
With the miner selling at a loss, its cash balance dropped from AU$158 million at the end of December to AU$99 million at the end of March.
That's the financial year just past.
The question now is, what can ASX investors expect from Sayona Mining shares in FY 2025?
What's ahead for the Sayona Mining share price in FY 2025?
Two weeks into FY 2025, the Sayona Mining share price is at 3.4 cents, down 5.6% so far in the new financial year.
While a number of company-specific factors will come into play to determine just how well or poorly the miner fares over the 50 remaining weeks of FY 2025, the biggest factor will be the global lithium prices.
Now many analysts believe lithium prices will remain subdued well into 2026. But there's recently been a growing cohort of bulls in this sector as well.
"Lithium could be a surprise into the end of 2024, as lithium equities are trading at levels that imply the whole EV transition is over," Janus Henderson's Global Natural Resources Fund portfolio manager, Darko Kuzmanovic said.
"The groundwork is set for a strong rebound in resources equities and commodity prices over the next few months into year's end," he added.
If Janus Henderson's forecast proves out, we could see a big rally in the Sayona Mining share price in H1 FY 2025.
