Is the CBA share price heading for a fall?

Experts are still saying CBA shares are a sell.

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Friday 8 March was a very happy day indeed for the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) share price. That was the day when CBA shares hit what was then a new record high of $121.54 a share. Today, that price reigns as CBA's high watermark.

Since that day in early March, CBA shares have slipped significantly. At present, this ASX 200 bank stock is at just $111.86. That's down 7.96% from that all-time high.

Even so, most investors are probably still doing ok with this company. CommBank shares remain up by 10.84% or so over the past 12 months, and up 15.85% since the beginning of November last year.

But just how much worse can it get for CBA shares? Does today's drop represent a bottom for the stock, or could this leading ASX bank have further to fall?

Well, that's the million-dollar question.

Of course, no one knows what the CBA share price will be next week, let alone over the next year or two.

But let's look at what some experts are saying.

Do CBA shares have further to fall in 2024?

Unfortunately for lovers of the CBA share price, it is difficult to find one ASX expert who is happy to recommend a buy at the current share price, even after the falls of the past month.

No one is questioning CBA's inherent quality as a well-run business and the ASX's largest and most popular bank.

But, as Warren Buffett's old right-hand man, Charlie Munger, used to say, "No matter how wonderful a business is, it's not worth an infinite price".

It appears that most ASX experts currently believe that the market is pricing CBA shares too high, and expect the bank to fall in value going forward.

One of those experts is ASX broker UBS. As my Fool colleague Tristan covered just this week, UBS has given CBA shares a sell rating, along with a share price target of $105.

UBS described the CBA share price as having a "stretched valuation". Further, it is expecting the bank's earnings per share (EPS) to drop over the rest of the 2024 financial year, thanks in part to rising costs.

It concluded by telling investors that there were better opportunities to be found elsewhere on the share market.

But UBS isn't alone with this bearish outlook. Earlier this month, we also looked at the views of Moragns analyst Damien Nguyen. Nguyen also hit CBA with a sell rating. Here's what he had to say to justify this:

Australia's biggest bank enjoys a loyal retail investor and customer base. However, we believe potential medium term returns are too compressed at current prices considering its earnings outlook and elevated trading multiples. The shares were recently trading at a substantial premium to our 12-month price target of $91.28.

This sentiment mirrors what analysts at both Wilsons and Macquarie have recently aired too.

So it appears that a good chunk of ASX experts reckon CBA shares are destined to drift lower, not higher, over the next year or two. But we'll have to wait and see what happens.

At the current CBA share price, this ASX 200 bank has a dividend yield of 4.07%.

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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