The Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) share price has tumbled 23% since 15 September when shares closed at $38.39. Shares finished yesterday changing hands for $29.45 apiece.
On 15 September, Brent crude oil was trading for US$93 per barrel.
But the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) energy stock came under selling pressure over the following months as the Brent crude price slid to US$76 per barrel by the beginning of 2024.
LNG (liquid natural gas) prices also trended lower.
While LNG prices are still lagging, the oil price has been marching higher since early February. And with strong demand out of Asia and limited new supplies coming online, I think we'll see LNG prices playing some catch-up for the second half of 2024.
As for the oil price, Brent crude topped US$91 per barrel on 5 April and was trading for US$87.50 at market close yesterday.
Based on those levels, and the fact I believe oil is more likely to head higher by the end of 2024 than lower, I think the Woodside share price is going for a bargain today.
Coming up with a hard target for the share price more than eight months down the road leaves plenty of room for error on either side of the equation. But all told I expect we'll see the Woodside share price end 2024 trading for at least $35 a share.
That would represent a potential upside of almost 19% from recent levels. And it doesn't include the fully franked interim dividend shareholders can expect in September or October.
Here's why I think the ASX 200 oil and gas company is in for a good run through the end of the year.
Tailwinds ahead for the Woodside share price
Woodside should continue to find support from long-term investors with an eye on the company's long-term growth prospects. That includes the mammoth offshore Scarborough LNG project, expected to come online in 2026.
In the meantime, a range of factors look set to keep energy prices elevated throughout 2024, offering a tailwind for the Woodside share price.
That includes ongoing output cuts from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies (OPEC+). And it includes the ongoing Houthi attacks on ships in the crucial Red Sea corridor.
Most recently, of course, we've been fretting over the spectre of an expanded Middle East war, pitting Iran against Israel.
Atop this backdrop, sanctions will most likely remain in place on Russia's oil exports, at a time when Mexico is reducing its exports to concentrate on domestic demand.
As for that demand, the US Energy Information Administration forecasts modest growth in oil demand will see inventories fall.
And this week's surprisingly strong growth figures out of China, driven by its manufacturing sector, could spur an uptick in current demand forecasts.
All up, this sees many analysts, myself included, forecasting an oil price in the low to mid US$90 per barrel range through to the end of the year. And I believe there's more upside risk to the price than downside, as any misstep by Iran or Israel over the coming months could upend the Middle East energy markets.
According to the analysts at Wilsons, the Woodside share price has recently been trading at an implied oil price of around US$70 per barrel.
With Woodside trading for $38.39 a share back in September when the oil price stood at US$91 per barrel, I reckon ending 2024 at $35.00 per share is quite achievable.
