Elders Ltd (ASX: ELD) shares were crucified by investors in response to a trading update yesterday. Having erased most of its 2024 gains, brokers are again running the ruler over the Australian agribusiness.
In the early moments of trading today, shares in the billion-dollar business are up 5.3% to $7.82.
What happened?
Before yesterday's destruction, the Elders share price had rallied 77% from its 52-week low. For the most part, the market had been willing to look past weak business, believing better times were around the corner.
Then arrived the FY24 trading update.
As reported by my colleague, James Mickleboro, Elders disclosed trading below expectations in the first half of FY24 for several reasons. Factors ranging from El Niño-induced client sentiment pressure to lower crop protection prices.
Furthermore, one of Elders' largest contributors to gross margin is its agency services. With cattle and sheep prices remaining 'significantly below' the 10-year average, this segment took a hit during the first half.
In short, it no longer looks like the first half of FY24 will be when Elders turns that corner.
The company's management now expects underlying earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) between $120 million and $140 million in FY24. Additionally, the impacted EBIT means Elders' leverage ratio will exceed the targeted 1.5 times to 2 times bounds during the financial year.
Is it time to buy Elders shares while fear is rife?
A change in expectations has prompted some brokers to refresh their views on Elders and its share price.
Surprisingly, many brokers are taking a positive perspective after Monday's 24% collapse. Here are the most recent revisions on Elders shares:
- CLSA: buy rating on Elders — $9 price target
- Morgans: add rating on Elders — $9 price target
- Citi: buy rating on Elders — $8.50 price target
- Shaw and Partners: buy rating on Elders — $9 price target
The team at Citi don't foresee the first-half weakness in FY24 to hang around in FY25. Citi analysts forecast underlying EBIT of $179 million in FY25 and $193 million in the following financial year.
Meanwhile, the team at Shaw and Partners are expecting 'more normal' conditions from here, stating:
The more positive ABARES outlook released in March 2024 and higher livestock prices suggest more normal conditions for Australian agriculture in calendar 2024.
Around 15% upside could be on the table if Elders shares were to reach $9 apiece once again.
