It's been a fairly pleasant Thursday for the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) so far. At the time of writing, the ASX 200 has gained a rosy 0.44%, lifting the index back over 7,800 points. But that's nothing compared to what the South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) share price is doing.
South32 shares are on fire today. This ASX miner closed at $3.03 a share yesterday afternoon. But this morning, those same shares opened at $3.09 and are currently up a huge 3.63% at $3.14 each.
This will no doubt come as a much-needed confidence booster for South32 investors. This lot has had a rough trot of late, with the South32 share price still down around 6.8% over 2024 so far, as well as down a painful 28.1% over the past 12 months.
But why is this diversified miner – with operations in aluminium, gold, manganese, copper, lead, zinc and silver – enjoying such a boost from investors today?
Why is the South32 share price popping today?
Well, it's not entirely clear. There hasn't been any fresh news or announcements out of South32 for a couple of weeks now. Today happens to be South32's dividend payday. So shareholders are no doubt enjoying watching the 0.605 cents per share fully-franked dividend payment roll in today.
But this is unlikely to be why South32 shares are vaulting so enthusiastically. One possible explanation is high commodity prices. South32 may be a highly diversified miner. But today, we've seen many resources jump in price, including oil, gold, coal and copper. Gold and copper are also both near their most recent 52-week highs (all-time highs in gold's case).
This could conceivably be influencing investor behaviour today.
Another factor to consider is the recent love coming from ASX brokers.
Earlier this week, my Fool colleague Bronwyn examined some recent strong buy recommendations from ASX brokers over March. One was for South32, which Morgans upgraded to a strong buy. The broker also gave the miner a 12-month share price target of $4.10. This would see investors enjoy an upside of more than 30% if realised.
Morgans justified this bullish outlook by stating the following:
S32 has transformed its portfolio by divesting South African thermal coal and acquiring an interest in Chile copper, substantially boosting group earnings quality, as well as S32's risk and ESG profile.
So it might be a combination of these two factors that are resulting in the big gains for the South32 share price that are currently on display.
They come despite some more damaging news in the ASX mining space as well.
Rio (and South32) facing possible sovereign wealth fund exclusion
As reported by The Wall Street Journal, South32's mining compatriot Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) is currently negotiating with the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund regarding the Fund's ongoing investment in the company. Norway's Sovereign Wealth Fund is notoriously strict on ethical standards and which companies it invests in. It has pulled out of Rio shares in the past.
And according to the report, it might do so again. The Fund is reportedly "examining whether to… sell its multibillion-dollar stake in miner Rio Tinto because of environmental concerns". As of 31 December, the Fund had a 2.24% stake in Rio Tinto.
This is relevant for South32 because the Fund is also reportedly examining its 2.16% stake in the company. If the Fund did decide to sell out of either Rio or South32, it would probably create significant downward pressure on share prices, given the size of these stakes.
But that doesn't seem to be bothering South32 investors today. Let's see where the company heads next.
