Are Woolworths shares dirt cheap following the selloff?

Is now the time to pounce? Let's see what one leading broker thinks.

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) shares are trading lower again on Thursday.

At the time of writing, the supermarket giant's shares are down 1% to $33.17.

This means that its shares are now down 8% over the last two trading sessions.

Investors have been hitting the sell button in response to a softer than expected half-year result and news that its CEO, Brad Banducci, has fallen on his sword and is quitting the role later this year.

Woman smiles at camera at she buys greens from the supermarket.

Image source: Getty Images

Should you buy Woolworths shares?

The team at Goldman Sachs believes this recent weakness has created a buying opportunity for investors.

According to a note from this morning, the broker has retained its conviction buy rating with a trimmed price target of $40.40. This implies potential upside of 22% for investors over the next 12 months.

And with the broker forecasting a fully franked 3.3% dividend yield in FY 2024, the total potential return stretches beyond 25%.

What did the broker say?

Goldman was a touch underwhelmed with Woolworths' results but saw enough to remain positive on the company. It explains:

WOW reported 1H24 with +10% EBIT in AU Foods YoY the key bright spot, though this was dragged by weaker-than-expected H2 first 7 weeks AU Foods sales growth of +1.5% and further guidance of a slower EBIT growth in 2H. Additionally, the ongoing ACCC pricing inquiry and earlier-than-expected announcement of CEO Brad Banducci's retirement weighed on the share price.

Goldman also believes the above overshadowed its new growth engine – the Woolies X business. It said:

Woolies X the scaling new growth engine: The segment (eCom + Digital & Media and Rewards & Services and Homerun) grew DAP by A$96mn vs. pcp, contributing to 68% of 1H24 AU Foods EBIT growth. This has been central to our Buy thesis – that the continued scaling of the company's omni-channel offer and advanced data and analytics capabilities to drive high growth/high margin ancillary services such as Retail Media will drive strong growth and returns above peers.

In 1H24, eCom DAP margin reached 3.2% and Digital Media DAP margin (on external revenue) reached 36.3%. Our channel checks suggest that WOW leads this growth lever by multiple years and management confirmed that eComm sales has larger baskets, higher GPM (due to long-life products skew).

All in all, the broker believes now could be an opportune time to snap up a high-quality company and a great price.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Broker Notes

Young successful engineer, with blueprints, notepad, and digital tablet, observing the project implementation on construction site and in mine.
Broker Notes

Macquarie says this Gina Rinehart-backed miner could pile on more than 150% in value

A big jump in rare earths resources has the analysts interested.

Read more »

Two IT professionals walk along a wall of mainframes in a data centre discussing various things
Broker Notes

Data centre work could help drive this ASX industrial stock to a record high

This company has a track record of strong growth.

Read more »

A view of competitors in a running event, some wearing number bibs, line up together on a starting line looking ahead as if to start a race.
Broker Notes

Buy, hold, sell: Sonic Healthcare, AMP, CBA shares

Let's start the week with some fresh ratings from the experts. 

Read more »

Broker written in white with a man drawing a yellow underline.
Broker Notes

Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy next week

Brokers gave buy ratings to these ASX shares last week. Why are they bullish?

Read more »

Group of people toasting with wine
Broker Notes

Buy, hold, sell: Transurban, Orora, Treasury Wine Estates shares

Here's what top broker Morgans thinks of these 3 ASX 200 shares following their FY26 reports.

Read more »

Businessman studying a high technology holographic stock market chart.
Broker Notes

8 ASX 200 shares with fresh buy ratings this week

Brokers retained a positive view on Westpac, Sonic Healthcare, Minerals 260, and other shares.

Read more »

Woman working on her laptop at a café.
Broker Notes

7 ASX 200 shares downgraded by the experts this week

Brokers reduced their ratings on IAG, Seek, Woolworths, and other ASX 200 stocks.

Read more »

Man drawing an upward line on a bar graph symbolising a rising share price.
Broker Notes

Morgans names 3 ASX shares to buy

The broker has good things to say about these shares. Here's what you need to know.

Read more »