What's in a year?
It's a question I pose rhetorically, but also seriously.
On one hand, it's just an arbitrary trip around the sun. There's no reason, other than that humans like to count these things, to use it as our basis for analysis.
Just as humanity has used different measurements for length, depth, volume (and yes, value) over our history, we could measure the passing of time in dozens of different ways.
There's truly no difference between December 31 and January 1 that is more meaningful than when the calendar goes from April 4 to April 5. (Even then, midnight is kinda arbitrary, too.)
No, I haven't been imbibing early. And I'm not going to get too philosophical on this last business day before Christmas.
I just wanted to make the point that arbitrary measures of time are just that – and measuring share market (and portfolio) performance on the same basis is every bit as arbitrary.
We could use 1,000 days as a benchmark. Or 100. Or anything else, really.
Still, because we don't, it's worth thinking about 2023, I guess.
Economically, it's a year to forget. Data out today suggests we'll have our first fall in real retail sales (adjusted for inflation) in more than 40 years.
Interest rates rose. So did unemployment. And, well, so have prices.
If 2023 is anything, perhaps it's the 'hangover' year.
After the events of 2020 and 2021, maybe we shouldn't have been surprised that we started to suffer in 2022 and again this year. And, given what might have happened in those years, absent serious government and central bank intervention, we probably shouldn't complain too much about the hangover!
Hopefully, the RBA can engineer a soft landing in 2024.
Goodness knows our governments (past and present) have done almost the very least possible to help! But it's almost Christmas, so I won't reheat that particular rant.
No, the reason for even talking about the year that was is to mark its impending closure.
As I write this, the ASX has gained around 8.5% for the year. Add around 4% in dividends, and that's a historically superior result.
The US market is up a whopping 24%. (I hope you're investing internationally! But that's another topic for another day.)
In short, investors don't have too much to complain about as 2023 draws to an end.
Indeed, I hope that – whatever your personal result for 2023 – you can take a little time this festive season to be thankful for the good things in our lives.
We are fortunate to live in one of the very best countries on Earth. Most of us have far more than enough. We have a relatively benign climate, a strong rule of law, some wonderful institutions and, though I don't like to boast, some of the very best fellow countrymen and women we could ask for.
Yes, yes, some things could be improved. But a little perspective this Christmas might be useful. I'd rather have our problems than almost anyone else's. We should address them, of course, but let's not miss the forest for the trees.
I do want to acknowledge that this time of year will be difficult for some. Absences around the Christmas table can be tough. And we don't all have family and friends with whom we can celebrate the season.
We're thinking of you.
I also want to thank those who don't get a break this Christmas. Particularly those in our armed forces deployed around the world. Our emergency services, doctors and nurses who'll only be a call away, but away from their families. And the shift workers who are keeping our national wheels turning, while we tuck into our lunches and dinners.
Lastly (well, almost… there's one more thing after this), I want to thank our Motley Fool members and readers. Without you, we don't have a business, and our team doesn't have jobs. Thank you for being part of our capital-F Foolish community. We love what we do, and we love doing it for you.
We look forward to serving you again in 2024. We'll continue to strive to deserve your loyalty and trust.
Now, as is my (sometime cringeworthy) won't at this time of year, I'll leave you with a little Festive Foolishness, in the form of a Foolish Christmas Carol.
Merry Christmas, Fools… and our best wishes for a safe, happy and prosperous 2024.
God Rest Ye Merry Foolish Folk!
God rest ye merry Foolish folk
Let nothing you dismay
Remember that investing
Takes more than just a day
Results they come from compound pow'r
Don't you be led astray
Invest then for comfort and joy
Comfort and joy
Oh, lo-o-ong term comfort and joy
With much mayhem some buy and sell
And 'get rich quick' is born
But that way lies much danger
Hopes they lay dashed, forlorn
The outcomes are so scary
In the harsh light of dawn
Invest then for comfort and joy
Comfort and joy
Oh, lo-o-ong term comfort and joy
Fear not then, said the Motley Fools
We'll see you set to rights
Follow a long-term strategy
Sure as day follows night
So Buy to Hold and gird your loins
Don't you give way to fright
Invest then for comfort and joy
Comfort and joy
Oh, lo-o-ong term comfort and joy
God rest ye merry Foolish folk
We thank you here, today
For being part of Fooldom
And 'Fool on!' as we say
We hope we've helped amuse, enrich
And educate (with play!)
We hope next year your comp'ny we'll enjoy
(More jokes we'll employ)
Oh, lo-o-ong term comfort and joy
Fool on!
