BrainChip Holdings Ltd (ASX: BRN) shares might just be one of 2023's most disappointing stocks that ASX tech investors have had to put up with this year.
If we cast our minds back to early 2022, investors were so excited by this artificial intelligence (AI) stock's potential that they sent it up more than 340% over just a three-month period.
Doubtless investors who rode that wave were loath to get off it. After all, winners, as they say, often keep on winning.
But Branchip shares didn't keep on winning. In fact, they have spent 2023 falling more than 75% in value. Yep, at the start of this year, Branchip shares were fetching 75 cents a pop. Today, those same shares are going for 19 cents at the time of writing.
So on these numbers, it might not look like much of a stretch for Brainchip to get back to 30 cents each. It was only in mid-September that we were seeing those sorts of prices for Brainchip shares, after all.
But in my view, Brainchip is unlikely to have a share price with a '3' in front of it for a while. And certainly not by Christmas, barring some kind of euphoric rush from investors.
Image source: Getty Images
Is there a chance Brainchip will be a 30-cent share by Christmas?
Why? Well, there are simply no upcoming catalysts that could shake Brainchip shares out of their current stupor.
Remember, the latest weakness in the Brainchip share price was arguably sparked by the company's half-year update. Back in late August, Brainchip revealed that it had received just US$115,606 in revenue over the six months to 30 June 2023. Meanwhile, its losses ran at US$17.15 million.
The company was subsequently kicked out of the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) amid the share price weakness that followed.
In late October, Braicnchip delivered another quarterly update, covering the three months to 30 September. As my Fool colleague James covered at the time:
That update revealed that the company achieved an average of US$9,000 in cash receipts each month during the three months ended 30 September. This is probably less than your local sandwich shop…
At the end of the period, Brainchip's cash balance had dropped by US$4 million to US$17.8 million. According to its cash flow report, this gives it an estimated five quarters of funding.
We are now two weeks from Christmas, and there are three weeks of 2023 remaining. Brainchip doesn't offer a public investor calendar, but I would be highly surprised if the company has any big events or announcements scheduled for the end of the year. Particularly any that have the potential to move the Brainchip share price the 57.9% it would need to hit 30 cents by Christmas.
Now Brainchip isn't immune from massive, unexplained share price bumps. After all, it was only just over a month ago that this company spiked 30% in one day with no apparent reason (earning itself an ASX speeding ticket in the process).
But I'd be shocked if we saw this happen on the scale it would take for Brainchip shares to hit 30 cents. Especially considering the current state of the company's finances. Stranger things have happened on the ASX. But I'm not betting on this one.
