The Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) share price closed up 0.8% on Friday, the last day of the 2023 financial year (FY 2023).
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) oil and gas stock ended the day trading for $7.52 apiece.
That sees the Santos share price up 1.35% over the past year.
If we add in the 33 cents per share in dividends Santos paid out over the year, the ASX 200 energy stock's accumulated value is up 5% over the 12 months.
Santos shares trade on a trailing yield of 4.4%.
With the first day of trading for FY 2024 kicking off on Monday, here's what to expect from the Santos share price in the year ahead.
What are the experts forecasting?
A number of top brokers are bullish on the Santos for the year ahead.
Citi's analysts named the company as their preferred oil exposure back in May. The broker has a neutral rating and $7.75 target for the Santos share price, 3% above Friday's closing price.
Citi is also forecasting FY 2024 dividends of 40 cents per share, equating to a forecast yield of 5.3%.
Morgans is also optimistic on the outlook for the ASX 200 energy company in the year ahead. The broker has an add rating on the stock with an $8.60 price target, representing a potential upside of 14%.
Noting that Santos is "well placed to outperform against the backdrop of a broader sector recovery", Morgans is forecasting the company will pay out 46 cents in dividends in FY 2024. That equates to a forecast yield of 6.1%.
According to Morgans:
While pre-FEED [Front End Engineering Design], we see Dorado as likely to provide attractive growth for STO, while its recent acquisition increasing its stake in Darwin LNG has increased our confidence in Barossa's development.
On the risk front, Morgan's analysts added:
PNG growth meanwhile remains a riskier proposition, with the government adamant it will keep a larger share of economic rents while operator Exxon has significantly deferred growth plans across its global portfolio.
What else could impact the Santos share price in FY 2024?
The Santos share price could catch some headwinds in the financial year ahead if regulatory issues continue to hold up its $5.8 billion offshore Barossa Gas Project.
But like Morgans, I believe this will be given the green light amid rising global demand for Aussie gas. Santos hopes to recommence drilling in the H1 FY2024, which should help boost investor sentiment.
Another potential tailwind for the Santos share price is rising energy prices.
On Friday, Brent crude oil was trading for just under US$75 per barrel. But according to Goldman Sachs, Brent is likely to be trading for US$86 per barrel by December. That's 15% above current prices.
