The Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO) share price closed lower on Tuesday, finishing down 0.54%.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) lithium stock closed at 91.5 cents apiece yesterday after starting the trading week at 92 cents each.
The Core Lithium share price remains down 12% over the past month and 9.4% year to date.
With FY2023 fast nearing an end, the question facing investors now is, what's the outlook for FY 2024?
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Will the Core Lithium share price regain its shine in FY 2024?
Despite slipping over the past 12 months, the Core Lithium share price remains up an eye-popping 1,730% over the past five years. And if you bought shares two years ago, you'd still be sitting on gains of 290%.
It's unlikely the ASX 200 lithium stock will see that kind of growth in FY2024. But according to the analysts at Macquarie, Core Lithium shares could gain more than 42% in the year ahead.
In May, the broker retained its overweight rating with a $1.30 price target for the lithium miner's stock.
Shaw and Partners portfolio manager James Gerrish is also bullish on the outlook for the Core Lithium share price in FY24.
That's partly based on the fact that Core's flagship Finniss Lithium Project, located in the Northern Territory, will be gearing up towards full production next year. On completion, Finniss will produce an average of 160,000 tonnes of battery-grade lithium concentrate per year.
In May, Gerrish said, "I think it is [a buy] with FY24 being the year where earnings really start to ramp up… We like it and believe it will trade higher from here."
There may also be some promising exploration results ahead, which could boost investor sentiment. The lithium miner recently announced a record $25 million drilling campaign targeting life of mine extensions and testing expansion potential.
However, not everyone agrees with that bullish outlook.
Citi, for example, has a 75-cent target on the miner's shares, almost 20% below the current price. Citi noted in April that Core trades on 1.3 times its price-to-net asset value ratio (P/NAV) compared to 0.8 times to 0.9 times for its peers.
Where to for lithium prices?
Of course, one of the biggest factors that will determine how well the Core Lithium share price performs in FY2024 will be the trajectory of lithium prices.
After falling off a cliff from the all-time highs posted in November, lithium prices have been gradually recovering since late April.
Looking ahead, Macquarie has one of the most bullish estimates, forecasting the lithium price could hit US$57,500 in the year ahead.
Whether prices continue to push higher will depend in part on demand for the battery-critical metal from China. If the Chinese government can stimulate the nation's sluggish economy back into high growth mode, Macquarie's bullish forecast could well prove true.
In turn, this would offer some heady tailwinds for the Core Lithium share price in the fiscal year ahead.
