Could buying BHP shares under $44 make me rich?

BHP shares are a lot cheaper. So it time to buy?

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points
  • The share price of Australia’s biggest miner has sunk 10% in just two weeks
  • Banking worries may be a key factor in the miner’s share price difficulties
  • I think the current climate of market fear is a good time to look at BHP shares

The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price has sunk to below $44. We haven't seen the price go this low since November 2022. So, after such a significant fall, is the ASX mining share now worth digging into?

I think one of the most important things to note is that the business has gone ex-dividend. That means BHP shares are no longer trading with an entitlement to the FY23 half-year dividend of 90 US cents per share — or AU$1.363.

Certainly, this can justify some of the fall in share price. But, it's actually down by 10.3% since 6 March 2023.

There has been considerable volatility over the past month, with plenty for investors to ponder.

BHP produces a number of different commodities including iron, coal, copper, and nickel. While the BHP share price, dividend, and profit are influenced by commodity prices, investors can also decide to push down share prices if it seems there is reason to worry about the Australian, or global, economy.

A young woman sits at her desk in deep contemplation with her hand to her chin while seriously considering information she is reading on her laptop.

Image source: Getty Images

What's going on with the global markets?

Investors recently had to digest the news that two mid-tier US banks were being taken over by authorities. The prospect of a potential banking collapse would, unsurprisingly, be concerning for investors. There are also concerns about Credit Suisse in Europe.

Less global demand in the economy could mean less demand for commodities, hurting the profits of ASX mining shares like BHP.

The slower-than-hoped Chinese economic growth in 2023, so far, may also be weighing on investor attitudes toward the business.

Overall, things aren't looking as good as they were in January.

Is the BHP share price a buy?

While things certainly do look a bit wobbly, I think this is the type of environment that opens up opportunities for brave investors.

Keep in mind that the iron ore price is still healthily above US$120 per tonne, meaning that BHP should be making good profit at these levels. That's good news for dividend-focused investors. Shareholders can endure short-term volatility if they're still getting large dividends.

I like the company's plans to unlock further logistical improvements across its network, which would allow it to ship more iron.

As well, BHP's plans to grow in copper, nickel, and potash looks attractive to me as the world turns greener. It could also mean that BHP is less reliant on China to buy all of its commodities.

However, while today may be a decent time to invest in BHP shares, remember that it's a huge business, so there may not be a lot of capital growth in the long term. Certainly, I wouldn't rely on share price growth to achieve great riches – it's more about buying at the right time in the cycle and collecting dividends, in my opinion.

According to Commsec, the BHP share price is valued at 10x FY24's estimated earnings with an FY24 grossed-up dividend yield of 10%.

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Opinions

Children skipping and jumping up a hill.
Opinions

2 excellent ASX All Ords stocks I'd buy today

Amid the volatility, I think there are plenty of great businesses to buy.

Read more »

Legendary share market investing expert and owner of Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett.
Retail Shares

Would Warren Buffett buy Wesfarmers shares?

Would the Sage of Omaha want to buy Wesfarmers shares?

Read more »

Man holding out $50 and $100 notes in his hands, symbolising ex dividend.
Dividend Investing

Why I just made this great ASX dividend share my latest buy

This ASX dividend share ticked the boxes of what I wanted: yield, growth and good value.

Read more »

A happy youngster holds a giant bag of carrots at a supermarket fruit and vegie section, indicating savings made by buying in bulk.
Opinions

2 ASX shares I'd buy if the market fell another 10%

Pullbacks are great times to buy...

Read more »

Man holding a calculator with Australian dollar notes, symbolising dividends.
Dividend Investing

2 ASX dividend shares with yields above 7%

Large yields and potential capital growth. What’s not to love?

Read more »

A woman leans forward with her hands shielding her eyes as if she is looking intently for something.
Growth Shares

5 ASX shares I'd buy with $5,000 today

These shares are on my radar right now.

Read more »

A man rests his chin in his hands, pondering what is the answer?
Opinions

Is that the end of the ASX share market crash?

The stock market looks like it has started to recover.

Read more »

A man holding a cup of coffee puts his thumb up and smiles while at laptop.
Opinions

3 reasons to buy NAB shares today

Here's why I think the ASX bank stock is still a buy.

Read more »