Better buy: Fortescue vs BHP shares

Here's my take on two of the ASX's best miners.

| More on:
A middle-aged woman sits in contemplation over a tablet device considering information about ASX shares and deep in thought.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • Iron ore miners have benefited from strong gains in recent months
  • I like that BHP is looking to grow its exposure to copper and potash
  • But I think Fortescue shares offer greater potential with its green energy plans

The ASX iron ore share segment of the market has some of the world's leading businesses. In this article, I'm going to look at Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX: FMG) shares and BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares.

It has been a fruitful time to own iron ore miners in the last few months as their share prices shot higher with the iron ore price fetching above US$120 per tonne. The last few years have seen strong dividends from both companies as Chinese demand had been strong enough for long enough to drive large profits in FY20, FY21, and FY22.

While both of these businesses have enormous Australian iron ore operations, it's the new things they're doing outside of Australian iron ore that make them particularly interesting to me. Knowing what the future businesses will look like could be what influences the market's perception of the ASX iron ore shares in the future.

Expansion into Africa?

Australia and Brazil are the two iron ore powerhouses of the world. But the continent of Africa could soon be a third player in the global iron sector.

Fortescue is planning to get involved in that region with the Belinga iron ore project in Gabon. It will be a venture with African partners, including the Gabonese government which will own a minority of the business.

Fortescue shares got a boost after the company announced it had signed the mining convention which governs all legal, fiscal, and regulatory regimes. This includes early development for the production of up to two million tonnes per annum, while studies advance potential designs of a large-scale development in Gabon.

The ASX mining share said that the early-stage exploration of Belinga shows similar grade and scale characteristics to Simandou at a comparable stage. Simandou is a major planned iron project in Guinea, Africa in which Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO) is also involved.

This could be a major boost for the Fortescue share price if it becomes a large, operational mine.

BHP shares are gaining exposure to decarbonisation commodities

While iron ore accounts for the largest portion of BHP's profit, the mining giant also has exposure to copper and nickel. It has copper exposure in South America and Australia, and nickel operations in Australia.

The company is also expanding through the acquisition of OZ Minerals Limited (ASX: OZL), a major copper miner. Despite paying a sizeable premium to pre-bid OZ Minerals' share price, BHP thinks it can extract a lot of synergies from the combination. Plus, it wants to grow its production of green commodities as the world is going to need significant copper, nickel, and other minerals to meet decarbonisation targets.

Copper is necessary for the electrification of cars, network grids, and so on.

BHP is also working on opening the Jansen potash project in Canada. Potash is seen as a greener form of fertiliser. This project could achieve high margins and have a mine life of many decades. It could also be a useful addition for BHP once operational.

Fortescue's major green energy plans

Fortescue has a plan to be a leading producer of green hydrogen. It's working with governments and organisations around the world to create a portfolio of green hydrogen-producing locations. Green hydrogen and green ammonia could be effective at replacing fuel for heavy machinery, aircraft, and boats.

Green hydrogen is produced by using renewable energy to separate hydrogen from water. European energy giant E.ON has already signed up to buy around a third of Fortescue's green hydrogen production by 2030.

Fortescue also wants to become a global leader in advanced batteries.

Are Fortescue shares or BHP shares a better buy?

After the strong run of both ASX iron ore shares, I wouldn't jump on either of them at the moment. A drop of around 20% from here could represent a good price for the long term.

According to Commsec, Fortescue could pay a grossed-up dividend yield of around 10% in FY23 and BHP could pay a grossed-up dividend yield of around 9%.

I think Fortescue is the higher-risk choice of the two due to its green energy plans, but I also think this has greater growth potential. It could be a leader in a large new market. That's why I own Fortescue shares.

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has positions in Fortescue Metals Group. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Resources Shares

Happy man in high vis vest and hard hat holds his arms up with fists clenched celebrating the rising Fortescue share price
Resources Shares

2 ASX mining stocks smashing the market on Tuesday

Shareholders of these mining shares will be smiling today.

Read more »

Miner and company person analysing results of a mining company.
Resources Shares

Why top brokers say Rio Tinto stock is a better buy than BHP

The Rio Tinto share price could soar 20% over the coming year, outpacing BHP's share price gains.

Read more »

two men in hard hats and high visibility jackets look together at a laptop screen that one of the men in holding at a mine site.
Resources Shares

The BHP share price is down 12% in 2024. What's next for the iron ore price?

BHP shares have struggled in 2024 amid sliding iron ore prices. Will the pain persist?

Read more »

A mining worker wearing a white hardhat and a high vis vest stands on a platform overlooking a huge mine, thinking about what comes next.
Resources Shares

The pros and cons of buying BHP shares right now

Let’s dig into the potential opportunity and pitfalls.

Read more »

asx share penalty represented by lots of fingers pointing at disgraced businessman Crown royal commission WA
Resources Shares

Rio Tinto share price slips amid an unrelenting ESG grilling

ESG advocates and investment managers questioned Rio Tinto management at last night's British AGM.

Read more »

A miner holding a hard hat stands in the foreground of an open cut mine
Share Market News

Own ASX 200 mining shares? Here's the 5-year forecast for commodity prices

Here are the official government price forecasts for 10 commodities from FY24 to FY29.

Read more »

Miner holding cash which represents dividends.
Dividend Investing

Invest $6,000 in Fortescue shares and get $502 in passive income

Fortescue shares delivered a boosted dividend to passive income investors in March.

Read more »

Miner looking at a tablet.
Resources Shares

Why is everyone talking about Rio Tinto stock on Thursday?

Ethical concerns may see $3.2 billion worth of Rio Tinto shares put up for sale.

Read more »