Are CSL shares a good buy right now?

Is this ASX share giant a healthy opportunity for investors? Brokers have their say…

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Key points

  • CSL shares have traded sideways for most of the year
  • The company is optimistic that demand is returning, with expectations of profit growth in FY23
  • Plenty of brokers rate it as a buy, with a potential upside of between 10% and 20%

The CSL Limited (ASX: CSL) share price has been largely flat over most of 2022. However, it is actually down by around 5% in 2022, which isn't bad considering the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is down 8%.

At the time of writing, the Betashares Nasdaq 100 ETF (ASX: NDQ) has fallen 28% in 2022. So, compared to a group of US-listed shares with global addressable markets, CSL has done well.

What's going on with CSL?

The CSL share price has likely been impacted by the ongoing volatility with inflation and higher interest rates.

But, share prices often follow profit over time. Let's have a look at what CSL is expecting to achieve in FY23.

CSL has said that it's expecting the CSL revenue growth to be in the range of 7% to 11% compared to FY22, at constant currency.

CSL's net profit after tax (NPAT) is expected to be approximately in the range of US$2.4 billion to US$2.5 billion, in constant currency terms. On a like-for-like basis, this would represent growth of between 10% and 14%.

CSL said that NPAT from Vifor, a business that the company recently acquired, is going to be between US$300 million and US$330 million.

Adding those two elements together, CSL is expecting its total underlying net profit to be between US$2.7 billion and US$2.8 billion.

The company recently outlined its research and development pipeline which could deliver further earnings for the business. In FY22 it spent over US$1.1 billion on R&D.

What do brokers think of the CSL share price?

Brokers are largely optimistic that the ASX healthcare share can deliver a double-digit return over the next year.

Morgans currently has an add rating on the business, with a price target of $312.50. That implies a rise of just over 11%. It noted the promising outlook for a number of CSL's developments.

Morgan Stanley is another broker with a positive rating. It has an overweight rating on CSL, with a price target of $327. That implies a rise of around 16%.

Ord Minnett has a positive outlook on the business, not only does it think that the CSL share price can rise by 17% to $330, but it thinks there is optimism surrounding demand for CSL's products and that plasma collection is improving.

One of the most optimistic brokers is Citi, with a price target of $340 and a buy rating. That implies a possible rise of just over 20%. On Citi's numbers, CSL shares are valued at 36x FY23's estimated earnings and 29x FY24's estimated earnings.

Foolish takeaway

Not every broker is bullish, for example, Credit Suisse is only neutral on the ASX healthcare share. Even so, the price target of $305 implies a rise of almost 10%.

Most brokers seem positive on the business, though they aren't expecting huge returns from here over the next 12 months.

Citigroup is an advertising partner of The Ascent, a Motley Fool company. Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended BETANASDAQ ETF UNITS and CSL Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended BETANASDAQ ETF UNITS. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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