Can you believe it's September already? How fast has 2022 gone!
Unfortunately for investors, statistically September is a shocker for ASX shares.
In fact, all of spring is historically a bit of a dud, before fortunes turn around in December for the Santa Rally.
As The Motley Fool's Bruce Jackson noted, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) fell right on cue on the first day of September this week. The flagship index ended up 1.79% lower after Thursday's session.
So what are we all going to do with our ASX shares?
Some experts have a few ideas:
'This September will be this September'
Marcus Today founder Marcus Padley went through the last 40 years of the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) to conclude, indeed, that September has been pretty bleak.
In fact, spring is the only season when all three months show negative returns.
"But let me tell you, after many years watching the stock market, that wherever there are numbers there are statistics, and wherever there are statistics there is an attention seeker in the stock market using the past to draw a conclusion about the future," he posted on Livewire.
"The truth is that there is no conclusion to be drawn about this September from the last 40 Septembers. This September will be this September."
It's the old investing axiom that past performance is no indicator of the present or future performance.
Analysts who present historical stats are not doing anything other than "stating facts about the past", according to Padley.
"And that's where the value ends. No-one should be investing or disinvesting because of the month of the year," he said.
"No-one in the professional funds management world makes decisions based on voodoo. Nor should you."
Five years from now no one will remember what happened
Jackson backed up this sentiment by saying even if this spring also ends up being very volatile, it will "likely pale into insignificance when looked back at in five years' time".
"Even the global financial crisis – the most painful period in recent history for investors – is nothing more than a blip in the long upward progression of the stock market."
And he cautioned investors against trying to seasonally time their transactions of ASX shares.
"In order to profit from market timing, you have to get two decisions right — the selling and the buying. It's hard enough to get one right let alone two," said Jackson.
"If you are invested in the stock market, you should look at it as a lifelong endeavour, not one to dip in to and out of depending on your mood, the market's mood, the economy, the government, or inflation."
