Could AGL shares really offer 9% upside and rising dividends in FY23?

Here's what the broker Morgans thinks.

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points
  • The AGL share price could be on the up-and-up this year
  • Morgans has tipped the stock to rise 9% to $8.73
  • It's also expecting the company to up its full-year dividends by 15% to 30 cents

Owners of AGL Energy Limited (ASX: AGL) shares could be in for a good 12 months with the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) giant tipped to grow in its value and offerings.

Indeed, broker Morgans has high hopes for the company despite it posting apparently disappointing full-year earnings last week.

The AGL share price is currently trading at $7.98, flat with its previous close. For context, the ASX 200 is lifting 0.8% at the time of writing.

So, what might be in store for those invested in the company's stock in the financial year 2023 (FY23)?

Let's take a look.

A senior investor wearing glasses sits at his desk and works on his ASX shares portfolio on his laptop.

Image source: Getty Images

AGL share price and dividends tipped to grow

AGL shares could be gearing up to grow in FY23, alongside the company's earnings and dividends.

While the market doesn't have any FY23 guidance from the ASX 200 energy producer and retailer, the company has noted it expects its earnings to be resilient this fiscal year amid challenging industry and market conditions.

It's set to release more detailed guidance alongside the initial outcome of a review of its strategic direction next month.

While Morgans originally held higher expectations for the company in FY23, it's still holding out hope for a win.

Analyst Max Vickerson conceded the broker is still bullish on the stock, slapping an add rating on valuation upside, despite commenting:

We significantly lower our expectations for FY23 underlying profit (-37%) given the likelihood of another year of wholesale electricity performance. We had hoped for a higher degree of optionality in its electricity derivatives and faster roll over of older hedging and customer pricing. Given the language used to couch the outlook we suspect this is not the case.

Additionally, as my Fool colleague James reports, Morgans has an $8.73 price target on AGL shares, suggesting a potential 9.4% upside.

It's also tipping the company to pay out 30 cents of fully franked dividends in FY23. That represents a potential 15% increase from its full-year payout of 26 cents in FY22.

Motley Fool contributor Brooke Cooper has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Energy Shares

An elderly man holds his chin in concern as he looks at his laptop screen.
Energy Shares

ASX 200 energy shares lift as pessimism over Iran war deepens

Oil and gas prices have spiked 15% to 18% this week amid ongoing constrained global supply.

Read more »

Oil industry worker climbing up metal construction and smiling.
Energy Shares

Why the Woodside share price has climbed 40% in 2026

Is the rally built to last, or is the easy money already made?

Read more »

An older Asian woman fills up her car with petrol at the service station.
Energy Shares

What key update is fueling Ampol shares today?

Acquisition progress lifts investor enthusiasm.

Read more »

Oil worker giving a thumbs up in an oil field.
Energy Shares

Up more than 300% over a year, this ASX energy share is hitting new highs

A fresh capital raise has investors fired up.

Read more »

A male oil and gas mechanic wearing a white hardhat walks along a steel platform above a series of gas pipes in a gas plant.
Energy Shares

Santos is back in focus. Here's why the shares are pushing higher today

Santos shares rise as its solid quarter keeps growth plans on track.

Read more »

A male oil and gas mechanic wearing a white hardhat walks along a steel platform above a series of gas pipes in a gas plant.
Energy Shares

Santos Q1 2026: Higher revenue, project ramp-up, steady guidance

Santos lifted revenue and production in the March quarter 2026, with major project progress and guidance reaffirmed.

Read more »

Woman refuelling the gas tank at fuel pump.
Energy Shares

Ampol's final ACCC remedy brings EG Australia acquisition closer

Ampol has updated its ACCC submission, now offering 41 sites for divestment to progress the EG Australia acquisition.

Read more »

A woman wearing green flexes her bicep.
Energy Shares

Genesis Energy upgrades FY26 guidance on strong Q3 earnings

Genesis Energy lifts FY26 guidance as Q3 sees strong hydro production, improved unit economics, and ongoing renewable energy investments.

Read more »