While it might feel like 2022 has been a horror year for ASX stock market investors, reality is the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is only down around 8% since the start of the year.
Rack that up to some impressive gains in commodity stocks — predominantly coal, lithium, and oil — fuelled by a heady combination of energy shortages, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and the ongoing demand for electric cars.
For coal, leading the way among the ASX 200 blue chips is the Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC) share price, up an impressive 130% so far in 2022 as coal prices set a new record during the June quarter.
Whitehaven sports a market cap of $6 billion and expects to report a full-year EBITDA of $3 billion. Astonishingly, it generated $1.4 billion of cash in the June quarter alone. Coupled with its net cash position of $1 billion, shareholders can look forward to a bumper franked dividend.
Trading on an FY23 forecast dividend yield of 19% and two times EBITDA, the Whitehaven Coal share price is demonstrably cheap, clearly one of the cheapest stocks trading on the ASX 200.
But is the Whitehaven Coal share price a buy?
In its June 2022 fact sheet, the top performing Lazard Select Australian Equity Fund said even with "normalised long-term coal price assumptions," Whitehaven Coal is still looking relatively attractive.
"We believe shareholders are going to be increasingly rewarded with higher dividend payments and share buybacks in the near term," the fund manager said.
According to ANZ Share Investing, Citi remains confident on Whitehaven shares, recently raising its 12-month share price target by 60% to $7.85. This compares favourably with the current Whitehaven Coal share price of $6.34.
On the flip side, Paradice Investment Management's Tom Richardson is more circumspect, recently saying on Livewire he's "worried this is as good as it gets" for Whitehaven Coal. He rates the stock as a hold.
