What's been impacting the AGL share price this week?

AGL looks to finish the day up.

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Key points

  • AGL shares have gyrated this week but look to finish the session on a high 
  • Brokers are still constructive on the share as energy market forecasts run hot 
  • AGL shares are up 36% this year to date  

The AGL Energy Limited (ASX: AGL) share price is edging higher in afternoon trade on Friday.

At the time of writing, investors have bid the share nearly 1% into the green despite no market-sensitive news.

In broad market moves, the S&P/ASX 200 Utilities Index (ASX: XUJ) is trading more than 2% higher on the day. Returns for both for the past 12 months are seen below.

TradingView Chart

What's up with the AGL share price?

Whilst it's been quiet in AGL's camp, elsewhere it's been more of a ruckus. US Natural Gas futures have rebounded towards yearly highs and now trade 51% higher on the month.

Moreover, the outlook for energy markets continues to strengthen for suppliers, a positive inflection point for the AGL share price.

This sentiment was echoed by analysts at JP Morgan who are bullish on the AGL share price.

In a recent note, the broker upgraded its average wholesale electricity prices by 93% to $208 megawatt per hour.

It expects these trends to continue into FY23 and FY24 with similar upgrades to forecasts in those years as well.

As a result, the broker anticipates AGL to print net profit of around $240 million in FY22, expanding to $555 million in FY23 and $1.32 billion in FY24.

Meanwhile, AGL is rated as a buy from 44% of the brokers covering the share, with the remainder tilted towards a hold, per Refinitiv Eikon data. There is just 1 sell rating.

The consensus price target from this list is $9.06 per share. Meanwhile, AGL has secured a 36% gain this year to date.

Motley Fool contributor Zach Bristow has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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