Now that FY2022 is well in the rear-view mirror, it's a good time to take stock and consider what FY2023 might have in store for the ASX and some of its most prominent shares. So, let's check out the BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price.
BHP is the largest share on the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), and by a mile too. It currently makes up around 10% of the entire ASX 200 by weighted market capitalisation. That's significantly more than the next-largest share, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), at just over 8%.
Over the financial year just passed, BHP shares didn't have a great time of it though. As my Fool colleague Tristan Harrison covered earlier this month, the BHP share price fell by a nasty 17.5% between 1 July 2021 and 30 June 2022.
That was significantly worse than what the broader ASX 200 delivered, which was a loss of 10.19%. Not even the monster dividend payments that shareholders received over FY2022 were enough to erase this loss.
But that's all in the past now. So could FY2023 be a better time for BHP shares?
Are BHP shares an FY2023 buy today?
Well, as we covered just this morning, one broker who thinks the next 12 months look promising for BHP shares is Morgans. This ASX broker has recently retained an add rating on the miner, complete with a 12-month share price target of $48.30. That would represent an upside of more than 25% from the current share price of $38.40 if accurate.
Morgans likes BHP's "relatively low risk given its superior diversification relative to its major global mining peers". It went on to say that "we see BHP as holding an attractive combination of upside sensitivity, balance sheet strength and resilient dividend profile".
Last week, we covered how brokers at Macquarie are also bullish on BHP. Macquarie has a 12-month share price target of $50, which would result in an even higher potential upside of 30% or so. But these bullish opinions aren't universal.
We also looked at how broker Morgan Stanley is "equal weight" on BHP shares today, with a share price target of $40.05. Further, Ord Minnett is rating the company as a hold today, with a target price of $44.
Bot of these less-enthusiastic brokers are worried that lower commodity prices going forward will weigh on the miner.
So a bit of a mixed bag when it comes to what the experts are thinking will happen to BHP shares in FY2023. Only time will tell which one proves to be accurate.
Meanwhile, the current BHP share price gives this ASX 200 mining giant a market capitalisation of $194.29 billion, with a trailing dividend yield of 12.49%.
