Why Macquarie shares could be a 'quality cyclical at a discounted price': expert

The outlook is bright, one strategist says.

| More on:
A woman sits at her computer with her hand to her mouth and a contemplative smile on her face as she reads about the performance of Allkem shares on her computer

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • Macquarie shares have been choppy in the past 12 months
  • Despite the volatility, one expert reckons the bank's share price looks attractive and that it can sustainably grow earnings into the future
  • The Macquarie share price trades 17% down this year to date

ASX 200 bank shares strengthened on Wednesday, outperforming the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO).

The Index closed 0.52% lower today while the ASX 200 Banks Index (ASX: XBK) finished 1.03% in the green.

The Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) share price followed the trend, closing up 0.58% at $169.66.

The investment bank has posted a series of gains and losses these past 12 months but is currently trading down 17% this year to date, as illustrated below.

TradingView Chart

Macquarie looks attractive at current prices

The investment debate on ASX bank shares has been a contentious one in 2022. On the one hand, rising interest rates look to boost bank profits.

On the other, the industry is heavily tied to the mortgage sector, with higher interest rates increasing the risk of systemic default.

However, one expert likes what Macquarie shares have to offer. Equity strategist at Wilsons Rob Crookston said Macquarie now presents an "opportunity to buy a quality cyclical at a discounted price".

He wrote on Livewire:

MQG is a quality business with the proven ability to position itself to take advantage of structural growth opportunities, resulting in compound earnings growth over the long-term.

Management's ability to deploy capital into opportunities has the potential to underpin future years of growth. We think investors will continue to support this approach, given MQG's track record.

Crookston said Macquarie can sustainably grow earnings given its focus on annuity income, its capital light model, and exposure to alternative investment classes.

He said that Macquarie manages 153 infrastructure assets across the world across all infrastructure asset classes. These range from roads to airports to digital infrastructure.

Macquarie's current valuation is also attractive, he says, trading at a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 13.6 times. This is "lower than it has been trading on post-2020 and close to its 5-year historical average", according to Crookston.

"We think this valuation looks reasonable due to the strong long-term earnings growth potential for MQG and unique leverage to the energy transition."

Motley Fool contributor Zach Bristow has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Bank Shares

A group of five people dressed in black business suits scrabble in a flurry of banknotes that are whirling around them, some in the air, others on the ground as some of them bend to pick up the money.
Bank Shares

Is the NAB share price a buy today?

The bank has a number of goals that it’s working on.

Read more »

Business people discussing project on digital tablet.
Bank Shares

Could the Macquarie share price reach $250 this year?

Macquarie shares would need to rise 18% to hit $250. Here is what earnings forecasts and valuations suggest about whether…

Read more »

Bank building in a financial district.
Bank Shares

Is the ANZ share price a buy today?

How should investors expect the bank to perform in 2026?

Read more »

Half a man's face from the nose up peers over a table.
Bank Shares

Why is everyone talking about the Westpac share price this week?

All eyes are on the banking stock this week.

Read more »

Worried woman calculating domestic bills.
Bank Shares

CBA vs. Westpac: Which is the better ASX bank stock for 2026?

If I had to choose just one Australian bank to own in 2026, this is where I’d lean.

Read more »

A worried woman sits at her computer with her hands clutched at the bottom of her face.
Bank Shares

CBA shares could crash below $100 in 2026: Here's why

Here's why the banking giant's share could tumble this year.

Read more »

Bank building with the word bank in gold.
Bank Shares

Here's the earnings forecast out to 2030 for Bendigo Bank shares

Can investors bank on earnings growth for this company?

Read more »

A man in a suit smiles at the yellow piggy bank he holds in his hand.
Bank Shares

How much passive income could I earn from Westpac shares

Is the bank a good option for income investors? Let's find out.

Read more »