Here's why the CBA share price could soon be in for some pain

Is it buy or sell for CBA shares today?

| More on:
An ASX shares broker analysing a chart tracking the A2 Milk share price

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • Commonwealth Bank of Australia remains a popular ASX investment
  • The bank has been giving investors some good returns in recent years too
  • But here's why two ASX brokers reckon the good times might come to an end

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) share price is one of the most widely followed on the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO).

That could be for one or more of several reasons. CBA's old status as the biggest share on the ASX perhaps. Or its place as the largest of the ASX's big four banks, and with the most market share. It could even be due to the fact that CommBank used to be a government-owned company.

Whatever the reason, the bank is a popular flagship share of the ASX 200. This is why many investors might find the idea of the CBA share price falling a painful one. Investors have been used to some decent returns from Commonwealth Bank shares. This was a bank that rose more than 20% last year, after all. Over the past five years, CBA shares remain up almost 30%. And that's not including the generous dividends (and franking credits) that have been paid along the way.

But perhaps the good times are coming to an end, at least for a while. That's the view of more than one broker on the ASX. So is it buy or sell for the CBA share price today?

CBA share price: Buy or sell?

Well, broker Goldman Sachs is firmly in the latter camp. Goldman has rated the bank as a sell for a while now. As my Fool colleague James covered recently, it has recently raised its 12-month share price target to $89.86, while maintaining its sell rating. If that were to play out, CBA shares would be facing a fall of around 13% over the next year.

Goldman reckons the CBA share price is just too expensive and notes that the bank I "more exposed to sector-wide headwinds" than its rivals.

Brokers at Macquarie largely agree. Macquarie also has a bearish 'underperform' rating on CBA shares right now. As we covered last week, the investment bank has a $90 share price target to match its underperform rating.

Macquarie also believes CommBank shares are expensive, and reckons the bank could struggle to match the performance of its rivals going forward, and thus shouldn't be commanding today's share price premium.

Perhaps that's not what CBA investors might want to hear today, but that is the view of two of the ASX's most prominent brokers. Time will only tell if their predictions turn out to be accurate.

At the current CBA share price, this ASX 200 bank has a market capitalisation of $174.53 billion, with a dividend yield of 3.63%.

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Bank Shares

Three colleagues stare at a computer screen with serious looks on their faces.
Bank Shares

Westpac shares charges higher despite $164m profit hit

What's impacting the bank's profits in FY 2024?

Read more »

A man holds his hand under his chin as he concentrates on his laptop screen and reads about the ANZ share price
Bank Shares

Are ANZ shares a top buy for dividend income?

Can we bank on ANZ shares for passive income payments?

Read more »

Accountant woman counting an Australian money and using calculator for calculating dividend yield.
Bank Shares

How much do you need to invest in NAB shares for $12,000 in annual dividends?

Enjoying $12,000 in annual dividend income is no easy feat...

Read more »

A man thinks very carefully about his money and investments.
Bank Shares

Is the CBA share price heading for a fall?

Experts are still saying CBA shares are a sell.

Read more »

A man holds his head in his hands, despairing at the bad result he's reading on his computer.
Bank Shares

Sell Bank of Queensland shares before they crash

Now is not the time to buy this bank's shares according to a leading broker.

Read more »

A man holds his hand under his chin as he concentrates on his laptop screen and reads about the ANZ share price
Bank Shares

Westpac stock: Should you buy the 5.5% yield?

Is Westpac an easy buy today for that 5.5% yield?

Read more »

Delighted adult man, working on a company slogan, on his laptop.
Earnings Results

Bank of Queensland share price leaps 6% on improving outlook

ASX 200 investors are bidding up the Bank of Queensland share price on Wednesday.

Read more »

A man in his 30s with a clipped beard sits at his laptop on a desk with one finger to the side of his face and his chin resting on his thumb as he looks concerned while staring at his computer screen.
Bank Shares

ASX expert: Time to sell NAB shares

The calls that NAB shares are overvalued are growing louder...

Read more »