Expert says investors are 'missing this inflection point' for QBE shares

The tides might be turning for QBE, one expert reckons.

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points
  • QBE shares have staged a comeback rally in 2022 and are well in the green since trading resumed in January 
  • Experts are turning more constructive on the stock and note it has the potential to deliver upside in 2022 based on the current macroeconomic climate 
  • In the last 12 months, the QBE share price has gained 26% 

Shares of QBE Insurance Group Ltd (ASX: QBE) are tracking higher on Friday and now rest in the green.

They initially spiked from the open, however, have since taken a backward step from intraday highs of $12.41.

At the time of writing, investors are paying $12.32 apiece for QBE shares.

A share market analyst looks at his computer screen in front of him showing ASX share price movements

Image source: Getty Images

Is the QBE share price at a tipping point?

After a difficult period these past few years, the QBE share price has managed to reverse course in 2022 and trade 9% higher.

Meanwhile, over the past month of trade, QBE has jumped 8% and has managed to book a 26% gain during the last 12 months.

Perhaps it's these returns that have sophisticated investors more constructive on the insurance giant, backed by its underlying fundamentals.

That could be the case, according to hedge fund manger Mark Landau, chief investment officer (CIO) of L1 Capital.

Sure, its share price has faltered in recent years, but the devil's in the detail with QBE, Landau says.

"If you look in detail at the last result of QBE's profits, if you take away all the actuarial assumptions that effectively lower their profit, their profit was actually 40% better than what they told the market," he recently told Livewire.

Even though investors "hate the stock", there are a number of catalysts feeding into QBE's operating story right now.

One of those factors is the amount of short-dated bonds QBE holds on its books, Livewire says, noting that for "every 1% increase in bond yields, the insurer gets a roughly 20% increase in profits".

Landau says that no one expects QBE to deliver higher profits, "let alone 20% [profit] on top of the underlying insurance business".

On this backdrop, the CIO submits that investors who are overlooking QBE right now could be missing an inflection point "similar to what we had in 2001".

Analysts are positive about the QBE share price too, touching on similar points to Landau in their recent assessment of the company.

In particular, each of UBS and JP Morgan rate QBE as a buy, valuing it at $15 and $15.50 per share respectively.

Motley Fool contributor Zach Bristow has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Financial Shares

Broker looking at the share price.
Financial Shares

GQG Partners shares in focus after August 2026 FUM update

GQG Partners reports a decrease in FUM to US$149.2 billion as at 31 August 2026, driven by net outflows and…

Read more »

Shot of a young businesswoman looking stressed out while working in an office.
Financial Shares

Down 6%: What is going on with the IAG share price?

The insurer has faced several headwinds recently.

Read more »

A bland looking man in a brown suit opens his jacket to reveal a red and gold superhero dollar symbol on his chest.
Financial Shares

Macquarie says this ASX financial share could jump 65%

A solid performance last year has this company set up for growth.

Read more »

Confident male executive dressed in a dark blue suit leans against a doorway with his arms crossed in the corporate office
ASX Share Market News

ASX 200 bank shares led a financial sector rebound last week

Stronger-than-expected GDP data rattled the market but bank stocks rose strongly. Here's why.

Read more »

Buy, hold, and sell ratings written on signs on a wooden pole.
Broker Notes

Up 24%! Are Macquarie shares still a good buy today?

A leading analyst delivers his outlook for Macquarie’s soaring shares.

Read more »

A woman presenting company news to investors looks back at the camera and smiles.
Financial Shares

Kina Securities lifts profit and dividend in half-year 2026 earnings

Kina Securities lifts 1H 2026 profit and dividend, buoyed by strong capital and digital initiatives.

Read more »

A woman sits at a computer with a quizzical look on her face with eyerows raised while looking into a computer, as though she is resigned to some not pleasing news.
Financial Shares

WAM Capital trims FY27 dividend after portfolio setback in FY26

WAM Capital trims its FY2027 dividend target after reporting a tough year and portfolio underperformance.

Read more »

Businesswoman with a pleased smile reading on her laptop at a desk in the office with a look of satisfaction.
Earnings Results

McMillan Shakespeare shares on watch on strong FY26 profit and 70c dividend

The salary packaging company has released its results this morning.

Read more »