The iron ore price outlook could be darkening amid China's latest plans

China's latest plan could make things worse for the iron ore price outlook.

| More on:
The yellow stars of China's flag painted on a red wall next to a padlock, indicating the risk of trading with China

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • The iron ore price outlook may be worsening as China continues to look for ways to control the commodity price
  • China is considering a centralised platform where all purchases must be made, rather than independent purchases as it is now
  • This puts the spotlight on ASX miners like BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue

The iron ore price outlook may be darkening with China's latest plans for the commodity.

It has already been a tricky couple of weeks for iron ore as the price has dropped more than US$10 per tonne over the last 10 or so days.

The Australian Financial Review reported that, "China's state planner and the market regulator told some iron ore traders to release excess inventory and reduce stocks to reasonable levels following a joint investigation in Qingdao, one of the country's largest iron ore ports."

But there's more potential change on the cards.

China's platform plans to control the iron ore price

According to reporting by Bloomberg Quint, China wants to regain control of iron ore prices through a centralised purchasing model where all transactions have to be done through a single state-backed platform.

Under current laws, Chinese businesses, such as steel producers, can make their purchases independently.

It's claimed this proposed platform aims to increase China's ability to influence the price of commodities.

According to Bloomberg Quint, Chinese officials are aiming to limit inflation with possible upcoming stimulus measures that may lead to higher steel demand.

It wouldn't be unique

Iron ore wouldn't be the only commodity subject to centralised negotiations if the plan goes ahead. There is reportedly a group of leading copper smelters in China that already access their annual supplies under such a scheme. Reports suggest a similar platform could be difficult given how many iron ore buyers may be involved.

Other tactics to control the iron ore price

Bloomberg Quint also referred to some other strategies that China may pursue to control and reduce the iron ore price. The government wants the big steelmakers to become larger by making corporate deals through acquisitions or mergers. Other ideas include boosting domestic output and buying stakes in mines outside China.

Which ASX mining shares could this impact?

Time will tell how this impacts the ASX miners.

But there are some significant iron ore mining businesses on the ASX, including BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO), Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX: FMG), and Mineral Resources Limited (ASX: MIN).

As commodity businesses, the price of iron ore can have a major impact on the movements of share prices and the profit-making potential of each company. Will each of those miners have to use that new platform? And, of course, it remains to be seen what the cost of using that platform might be.

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison owns Fortescue Metals Group Limited. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on Economy

A woman in a red dress holding up a red graph.
Economy

How much will markets and rates rise this year? AMP's Shane Oliver makes a prediction

This interest rate outlook might surprise.

Read more »

graphic depicting australian economic activity
Share Market News

Buying ASX 200 shares? Here's what the latest spending report means for interest rates in 2026

The ASX 200 dropped 0.3% following the release of the consumer spending report. But why?

Read more »

Percentage sign with a rising zig zaggy arrow representing rising interest rates.
Share Market News

With inflation edging lower, here's the latest 2026 interest rate forecast from CBA

Buying ASX shares and pining for interest rate relief? Here’s CBA’s latest 2026 forecast.

Read more »

A happy young couple celebrate a win by jumping high above their new sofa.
Retail Shares

2 quality ASX 200 shares to buy now amid a rising Aussie dollar

Amid CBA’s forecast of a strengthening Aussie dollar, it may be time to shake up that ASX share portfolio.

Read more »

Australian dollar notes and coins in a till.
Share Market News

Why CBA is forecasting a stronger Aussie dollar in 2026, and what that means if you're buying ASX shares

Amid CBA’s forecast of a strengthening Aussie dollar, which ASX shares might benefit and which might struggle in 2026?

Read more »

Higher interest rates written on a yellow sign.
Share Market News

Experts forecast rising interest rates in 2026. Here's what that means if you're buying ASX shares

Buying ASX shares? Here’s why CBA and NAB are forecasting RBA interest rate hikes in 2026.

Read more »

Magnifying glass on a rising interest rate graph.
Share Market News

Buying ASX shares? Why, and how, you should prepare for higher interest rates in 2026

The odds of RBA interest rate hikes in 2026 are rising. Here’s what that means if you’re buying ASX shares.

Read more »

A young woman uses an application in her smart phone to check currency exchange rates in front of an illuminated information board.
Economy

What a rising Aussie dollar means for your ASX shares

A rising dollar flows through to many ASX shares.

Read more »