As an ASX bank share, National Australia Bank Ltd. (ASX: NAB) shares certainly have a reputation as a solid income-paying investment. Notwithstanding the interruptions that the coronavirus pandemic brought to ASX bank dividends, NAB, like the other major banks, gave investors a bit of a dividend recovery in 2021. This is in comparison to the dearth of banking dividends in 2020.
Like most ASX shares, the NAB share price has had a rough start to 2022. So far this year, NAB is down by close to 6%. Over the past 12 months, the bank is sitting at an 8.65% gain.
So now that we are well and truly getting stuck into 2022, what does NAB hold in store for investors in terms of dividends?
Well, let's start with NAB's more recent dividend history.
So 2020 saw NAB pay out two fully franked dividends at 30 cents per share, making it an annual total of 60 cents per share. That was a marked downgrade from 2019's total of $1.66 in dividends per share, but such was the impact of COVID.
2021 saw NAB pay out two dividends again. This time it was an interim dividend of 60 cents per share, and a final dividend of 67 cents per share, both fully franked. That gives the NAB share price a trailing yield of 4.59% today. That happens to be the second-lowest trailing yield out of the big four banks right now.
Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (ASX: ANZ) and Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) are both offering trailing yields over 5% today. Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) currently has a trailing yield of 3.72% as it currently stands.
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Will NAB keep its dividends growing in 2022 and beyond?
So what does the future hold for the NAB dividend? Will 2022 see another dividend increase from NAB shares?
Well, we don't know for sure yet, of course. But let's see what a major ASX broker is tipping. Investment bank and broker Goldman Sachs is currently bullish on NAB shares, describing NAB as "our preferred major bank exposure".
Goldman is indeed expecting NAB to deliver a dividend pay rise in 2022, and again in 2023 and 2024. Goldman is expecting $1.43 in dividends per share for 2022, which rises to $1.45 for 2023 and $1.48 for 2024. If that turned out to be the case, those figures would give NAB a forward yield of 5.23% for 2023 and 5.34% for 2024.
No doubt NAB shareholders would be pretty pleased with that prediction. Now let's see if it comes to pass.
At the current National Australia Bank share price, NAB has a market capitalisation of $89.42 billion.
