Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is up 0.5% over the past 24 hours, currently trading for US$46,336 (AU$64,051).
Though it's down just over 3% in 2022, the world's biggest crypto, with a current market cap of US$877 million, gained 63% in 2021. It also set a new all-time of US$68,789 on 10 November.
With more Aussies interested in buying cryptocurrencies, investors are wondering whether Bitcoin can again post new records this year, or if the token is due for a big fall.
For some insight into that question, we turn to 3 industry experts.
Bitcoin to US$90,000…and beyond
Kicking off with a bullish outlook for the Bitcoin price is Katie Stockton, managing partner of Fairlead Strategies LLC.
According to Stockton (as quoted by Bloomberg):
We are bullish Bitcoin long-term, based on our long-term trend-following gauges. We assume the long-term uptrend will maintain itself and a more decisive breakout to new highs would allow for an impressive measured-move projection of approximately $90,000.
For now, a corrective phase still has a hold, although there are potential signs of short-term downside exhaustion.
Antoni Trenchev, managing partner of crypto lender Nexo, is also enthusiastic about Bitcoin's outlook for 2022. Despite forecasting continued volatility, he expects the token to hit US$100,000 by late June.
Pointing to the tailwinds Bitcoin has received from central bank monetary easing, Trenchev said:
The number one influencing factor for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in 2022 is central bank policy. Cheap money is here to stay which has huge implications for crypto… The Fed doesn't have the stomach or backbone to withstand a 10-20% collapse in the stock market, along with an adverse reaction in the bond market.
But not every crypto analyst is equally bullish.
Group-think stupidity
Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at Oanda Asia Pacific, believes cryptos like Bitcoin will struggle in the year ahead.
He said (quoted by Bloomberg), "Although I expect the speculative zeal to continue in the crypto space, it, like bloated technology valuations, faces a much more challenging environment in 2022."
Halley has a different take to Trenchev on what the US Fed and other leading global central banks will be forced to do with rates in 2022.
"The primary reason is the start of interest-rate normalization by the Federal Reserve but with other major central banks likely to follow as well," he said. "That will challenge the raison d'être that crypto is an alternative to fiat money."
And with essentially unlimited competition coming out of the virtual woodwork, Halley doesn't see things ending well for Bitcoin and altcoin investors longer-term:
Hanging over the crypto space is the threat of more regulation and frankly, with a new coin coming out every week which is 'the next big thing' and driven by speculation and not blockchain, I'm struggling to see how any of them will be. I continue to believe that cryptocurrencies are the greatest case of financial-market group-think stupidity in history. The music may keep playing for part of 2022, but the emperor still isn't wearing any clothes.
Bitcoin to US$100,000 in 2022 or exposed as unclothed?
Tune in next year for the definitive answer!
