Why the Graincorp (ASX:GNC) share price is harvesting some stellar gains this week

In the past 12 months the Graincorp share price has climbed to record highs.

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Shares in integrated grain business Graincorp Ltd (ASX: GNC) have been trading in the green this Wednesday, closing the day 0.79% higher at $7.69.

Today marks another 52-week high for the company, which has been on a stellar run in 2021, having sprung off a bottom of $4.09 in February.

Whilst it's been relatively quiet out of the agricultural commodity giant's corner lately, it's been the exact opposite for its grain terminals. They have recorded their busiest week of harvest in eastern Australia so far this year.

As such, the Graincorp share price is catching bids as the harvest season heats up across the eastern states, particularly now that the weather is more amenable.

What's up with Graincorp lately?

The company received over a million tonne of grain from key areas in New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria this past week, meaning Graincorp has booked more than 8 million tonne (Mt) so far this season.

At least 1.08 Mt of grain came from NSW this week alone, according to reporting from The Land, bringing the most populous state's total to almost 4.6 Mt for the season.

The company is expecting the trend to continue. It is chasing more casual workers to fulfil the demand and in anticipation of huge crop yields for the remainder of the season.

These trends continue on an enormous upswing of grain receivals in FY21, where the company realised 16.5 Mt of grain versus 4.2 Mt the previous year.

Such a bump in grain received enabled export of around 8 Mt, up from 1.3 Mt in FY20. This has driven the company's return on invested capital (ROIC) to 11.1%, up from 1.6% in the prior corresponding period.

And these numbers have the analyst teams of several investment firms offering their predictions on the direction of Graincorp's share price.

RBC Capital Markets initiated coverage on Graincorp last week with a buy rating while valuing the company at $9.10 per share.

Macquarie is equally bullish, holding an outperform rating while setting a price target of $8.03.

It is joined by both Morgans and Sadif Investment Analytics, who each reckon Graincorp is a strong buy with a $7.90 valuation on the stock price.

Despite this sentiment, Bell Potter still has Graincorp as a sell, and reckons its shares are worth $6.15 per share, implying a 20% downside potential from today's price.

Graincorp share price summary

In the past 12 months the Graincorp share price has climbed to record highs, gaining more than 76%. This year to date it has climbed more than 83%.

Graincorp shares are up around 13% in the past month after jumping 8% over just the past 5 days of trading.

Graincorp has a market capitalisation of $1.7 billion with 228 million shares on issue.

The author has no positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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