The Telstra Corporation Ltd (ASX: TLS) share price has been a surprise ASX 200 blue chip performer in recent times. Telstra shares have delivered a very pleasing year to date performance in 2021 so far, as well as a pleasing 12 month performance. This telco's share price is up 33.4% and 30.8% over those periods respectively, despite today's nasty share price slump. So far this Monday, Telstra is down 0.86% at $4.02 a share.
It was only last Tuesday that Telstra was hitting a new 52-week high of $4.09 a share though, its highest level since late 2017. So where to from here? Well, since we are approaching the end of the year, it might be a good time to ask how Telstra shares typically perform in the lead up to Christmas. Is there a pattern to watch out for here?
Well, let's dig in.
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Will the Telstra share price be naughty or nice?
So let's first look at last year. Telstra began December 2020 at a share price of $3.07 (those were the days). By Christmas Eve, this ASX 200 telco had closed at $3.01 a share. That's a Scrooge-like slide of 1.95%.
Before you execute a pre-December sell out of your Telstra position, let's see if this pattern holds true for other years as well.
2019 had Telstra start the twelfth month at $3.86 a share, only to end up at $3.65 by Christmas Eve – a slide of 5.44%. Ok, not a great start. Let's go back to 2018.
Telstra began December 2018 at a share price of $2.93. By 24 December, it had fallen to $2.78. The pattern continues.
2017?
Telstra kicked off December 2017 asking $3.39 a share. By Christmas Eve that year, it was up at $3.66 a share, a rise of almost 8%.
So what does this tell us? Not much in all likelihood. Yes, Telstra has had 3 bad runups to Christmas in a row. But sometimes if you flip a coin 3 times, it comes up with 3 heads in a row. No one knows how this Christmas period will go for the Telstra share price. But it's probably not a good idea to try and make an investment decision on something so arbitrary anyway.
At the current Telstra share price, this ASX 200 telco has a market capitalisation of $47.75 billion, with a dividend yield of 3.98%.
