Top broker tips BHP (ASX:BHP) share price to rise 48%

Is the BHP share price a bargain buy?

The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price is edging higher on Monday afternoon.

At the time of writing, the mining giant's shares are up 0.5% to $37.90.

While this is positive on a red day for the ASX 200, the BHP share price is still down a disappointing 30% from its August high of $54.55.

Two cheerful miners shake hands.

Image source: Getty Images

Is the BHP share price good value?

While the recent weakness in the BHP share price is disappointing for shareholders, it could be a buying opportunity for non-shareholders.

That's the view of the team at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), which last week retained their outperform rating and $56.00 price target on the miner's shares.

Based on the current BHP share price, this implies potential upside of 48% over the next 12 months.

And that's before dividends. Macquarie is forecasting a fully franked dividend of $3.97 per share in FY 2022. This works out to be a sizeable 10.5% dividend yield, which increases the total potential return to over 58%.

Why is Macquarie so bullish?

Macquarie is bullish on BHP largely due to the diversity of its operations.

Although the iron ore price has fallen heavily in recent months, this is being cushioned by strong rises in other commodity prices such as coal.

"Buoyant coking coal prices have enabled BHP to maintain earnings upgrade momentum despite the recent volatility in iron-ore prices," it commented.

In fact, the broker believes that overall commodity prices are strong enough for BHP to generate enough free cash flow to support a ~20 free cash flow yield. Which, as mentioned above, is expected to underpin very generous dividends in the near term.

In light of this, the broker appears to believe that the recent weakness in the BHP share price could be a buying opportunity for investors looking for exposure to the resources sector.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on Broker Notes

Happy investor on tablet with finance graphs rising in overlay.
Broker Notes

2 ASX 200 shares tipped to rise 39% to 130%

These shares could be heading materially higher according to analysts.

Read more »

Business people discussing project on digital tablet.
Broker Notes

Is the Fortescue share price a bargain buy?

Two leading brokers have given their verdict on the iron ore giant.

Read more »

Two miners laughing and having fun while using smart phone during their coffee break.
Broker Notes

Buy, hold, sell: Rural Funds Group, Imdex, Fortescue shares

Experts reveal their ratings on 3 ASX shares in the mining, real estate, and materials segments. 

Read more »

Two colleagues looking at a graph and comparing share prices.
Broker Notes

Buy, hold, sell: Orica, Bank of Queensland, Megaport shares

Morgans has just released new notes and ratings on these 3 ASX 200 shares.

Read more »

A little girl wearing wonky glasses checks out what's happening in the world on a mobile phone.
Broker Notes

Buy, hold, sell: IDP Education, Macmahon Holdings, Transurban shares

Let's check out some new ratings on ASX shares today.

Read more »

Couple using their digital tablet together.
Broker Notes

Why this top broker is buying Charter Hall, Soul Patts, and Wesfarmers shares

Let's see why Bell Potter is recommending a shift to quality shares.

Read more »

Stethoscope and a pen on a laptop.
Broker Notes

Macquarie tips an 8% dividend yield and 46% share price gain for this stock

This health stock is looking undervalued, the broker says.

Read more »

Couple looking at their phone surprised, symbolising a bargain buy.
Broker Notes

AGL, Cochlear, WiseTech shares: Buy, hold, sell

Find out what brokers expect next for these ASX shares.

Read more »