The NAB (ASX:NAB) share price has gained 10% in the last 6 months

It has been a great six months for this banking giant…

| More on:
happy woman throws arms in the air

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) share price has been a strong performer over the last six months.

Since this time in February, the banking giant's shares have risen 10%.

This means the NAB share price is now up 20% since the start of the year.

Why is the NAB share price up 10% in six months?

There have been a few catalysts for the strong gain by the NAB share price over the last six months.

One of those has been its much-improved performance in FY 2021. This led to the bank reporting a strong half year result and then an equally strong third quarter update earlier this month.

In respect to the latter, for the three months ended 30 June, NAB revealed an unaudited statutory net profit of $1.65 billion and unaudited cash earnings of $1.70 billion.

Although this was modestly ahead of the average quarterly profit and cash earnings that it achieved during the first half of the financial year, it exceeded the market's expectations.

In response to the release, Goldman Sachs revealed that NAB was trading well-ahead of its second half estimates.

It commented: "NAB has released its 3Q21 trading update, with unaudited cash earnings from continuing operations of A$1.70 bn, up 1% on the previous period average, run-rating 11% ahead of what is implied by our current 2H21E forecasts."

What else?

Also giving the NAB share price a boost was news that it has agreed to acquire Citigroup's Australian consumer business.

The proposed acquisition includes a home lending portfolio, unsecured lending business, retail deposits business, and private wealth management business. It will add deposits of $9 billion and lending assets of approximately $12.2 billion. The latter comprises residential mortgages of approximately $7.9 billion and unsecured lending of approximately $4.3 billion.

Goldman was also pleased with this and sees the acquisition as a good way to deploy its excess capital.

The broker explained: "We see strategic merit in the transaction, which would contribute to an improvement in the returns drag NAB has suffered vs. peers from being underweight Consumer Banking and having a Consumer Bank that relatively under-earns, given a lower exposure to unsecured lending. We calculate that the transaction would result in a c. 1.5% better EPS outcome than if the equivalent capital was bought back on-market."

Is it too late to invest?

As you might have guessed from Goldman Sachs' positive comments, it still sees value in the NAB share price.

Goldman recently retained its conviction buy rating and lifted its price target to $30.62. Based on the current NAB share price of $27.64, this implies potential upside of ~11% over the next 12 months before dividends. Including dividends, the potential return stretches to approximately 16%.

This could mean NAB's share price gains are still not over in 2021.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on Bank Shares

Nervous customer in discussions at a bank.
Bank Shares

What should you do with your CBA shares in 2026?

The business is still excellent, but the valuation leaves much less room for upside.

Read more »

Four businessmen in suits pose together in a martial arts style pose as if ready to engage in competition or spring into a fight.
Bank Shares

What happened with the big four ASX 200 bank stocks like ANZ and CBA shares in January?

Buying ANZ, NAB, Westpac or CBA shares? Here’s what happened in the month just past.

Read more »

Worried woman calculating domestic bills.
Bank Shares

Where will CBA shares be in 5 years?

CBA's next five years could be quite different to its last five...

Read more »

Small girl giving a fist bump with a piggy bank in front of her.
Bank Shares

Buying Westpac shares today? Here's the dividend yield you'll get

Westpac has a reputation as one of the ASX's most reliable providers of fat, fully franked dividends.

Read more »

A young girl looks up and balances a pencil on her nose, while thinking about a decision she has to make.
Opinions

Should I sell my CBA shares in 2026?

What's next for the banking giant this year?

Read more »

Worried woman calculating domestic bills.
Bank Shares

Big news is making Bank of Queensland shares fall today

There has been some big news out of this bank today.

Read more »

Time to sell ASX 200 shares written on a clock.
Bank Shares

Sell alert! Why this analyst is calling time on ANZ shares

A leading analyst foresees headwinds ahead for ANZ shares. But why?

Read more »

A toy house sits on a pile of Australian $100 notes.
Dividend Investing

Buying NAB shares? Here's the dividend yield you'll get today

NAB's current dividend yield might surprise you.

Read more »