What is the outlook for the Fortescue (ASX:FMG) share price?

Why one broker thinks there's upside for the Aussie mining share.

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX: FMG) share price has had a tough 2021 so far. Shares in the major iron ore miner have fallen 9.2% to close at $22.52 per share on Thursday.

Investors will be hoping for a turnaround in fortunes before the year is out. So, what's the outlook for the ASX mining giant in 2021?

Man with binoculars standing on edge of building looking into distance

Image source: Getty Images

What's in store for the Fortescue share price?

Let's start with the current state of play. Shares in the Aussie miner are still up 26.1% in the past 12 months and 356.8% in the last 5 years, not including the role that a hefty dividend plays in total returns. So, it's not all doom and gloom for shareholders right now.

However, a falling iron ore price, largely driven by weaker Chinese demand, has hurt the Fortescue share price in recent weeks. China is a major buyer of Aussie iron ore as a key input into the steel production process. That means when China decides to stop buying, ASX iron ore shares like Fortescue tend to perform poorly.

One leading broker thinks that the outlook for the Aussie mining share isn't all bad. A recent equity research report from JP Morgan reinstated a $30 per share price target and overweight rating. Given the current $22.52 share price, this implies a potential 33.2% upside based on the broker's target.

JP Morgan analysts cited Fortescue's strong Q4 2021 results and a net cash position above their own and market expectations. While the Fortescue share price has been under pressure in 2021, clearly some in the market think there is still an attractive investment thesis to be made.

Foolish takeaway

The Fortescue share price has been on a sustained bull run for a number of years now. While 2021 hasn't been panning out as investors would have hoped, the Aussie mining share is still up 26.1% in the last 12 months and trading on an 11.0% dividend yield.

Motley Fool contributor Ken Hall has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on Resources Shares

Businesswoman holds hand out to shake.
Resources Shares

Is this ASX lithium stock a takeover target? Sure looks like it

This company's shares could rocket if the rumours are true.

Read more »

An engineer takes a break on a staircase and looks out over a huge open pit coal mine as the sun rises in the background.
Broker Notes

Up 49% in a year, should you buy BHP shares for their 'stability and income'?

A leading expert delivers his forecast for BHP’s fast-rising shares.

Read more »

Industrials Shares

Mader Group shares are up 700% in 5 years. Is patience about to pay off again?

Profit up. Share price flat. For long-term investors, that kind of disconnect can be exactly where opportunity hides.

Read more »

Happy woman miner with her thumb up signalling Wyloo's commitment to back IGO's takeover of Western Areas nickel
Resources Shares

3 reasons to buy BHP shares now and hold for the next decade

Strong operations, dividends, and long-term demand support its appeal.

Read more »

Young successful engineer, with blueprints, notepad, and digital tablet, observing the project implementation on construction site and in mine.
Resources Shares

This ASX lithium company could more than double in value one broker says, after a "transformational" funding deal

This company will be cashed up after this new agreement goes through.

Read more »

A woman stands in a field and raises her arms to welcome a golden sunset.
Resources Shares

Newmont shares jump again as record cash flow and buyback boost sentiment

Newmont shares rise after reporting record cash flow and expanded buybacks.

Read more »

Calculator and gold bars on Australian dollars, symbolising dividends.
Resources Shares

Newmont declares quarterly dividend for ASX investors

Newmont Corporation declares a US$0.26 quarterly dividend for ASX investors, with payment to follow in June 2026.

Read more »

Lakes in the form of footsteps among the green trees, indicating steps towards a healthier planet.
Resources Shares

Fortescue invests $680m in Pilbara Green Energy Project

Fortescue commits US$680 million to expand Pilbara green energy infrastructure, aiming to meet increasing industrial and data centre demand.

Read more »