The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price finished Thursday lower despite Macquarie analysts sharing a bullish word on the mining giant.
At the close, shares in BHP fetched $53.12 apiece, down 1.74%. The miner is set to report its latest results on Tuesday 17 August 2021 (ASX reporting calendar).
Big could get better
While investors weren't looking too fondly on ASX-listed BHP shares on Thursday, analysts at Macquarie took a different view.
The mining company is already expected to announce its biggest dividend payday. Currently, the consensus is for a smaller payment than Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO), which came in at US$9.1 billion. This follows a stupendous demand for iron ore and copper, pushing prices of the commodities to dizzying heights.
Macquarie analysts are forecasting a final dividend of US$1.78 per share. This would bring the dividend shower to a total of US$5.3 billion. However, the broker admits the actual dividend could exceed even these lofty estimates.
Further to this, Macquarie analyst Hayden Bairstow said:
Divisionally, iron ore and copper are expected to be divisions to register higher earnings year-on-year driven by buoyant iron ore and copper prices… The upside risk to BHP's earnings due to buoyant iron-ore prices remains significant despite operational pressures in its Coal and Copper business.
BHP outperforms RIO on the ASX
Firstly, we will need to wait until after BHP reports to establish which of the mining giants dished the best dividends. However, purely on a share price basis, BHP has outperformed its peer on the ASX over the last year.
While Rio Tinto has performed strongly with a 25.5% price appreciation, BHP has surged 33.2%. A big potential share price driver for the latter will be in mind during BHP's results. This of course is the final investment decision on the Jansen Potash project.
